The answer on these inputs
$1.5 million produces $60,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $60,000 of spending that is 100% coverage — the first-year withdrawal funds the spend. A constant 5.0% return still has money at year 35. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 43% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $5,473,535.
$1.5 million by retirement age
Funding $60,000 a year from age 60, $1.5 million lasts to 95 in 43% of paths on cautious returns and 64% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 68% and 88%; starting at 50 drops it to 30% and 49%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $33,500 to $47,000 a year, which is $2,792 to $3,917 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 24% | 43% | $20,500 | $35,000 |
| 50 | 45 | 30% | 49% | $23,500 | $37,000 |
| 55 | 40 | 35% | 56% | $25,500 | $39,000 |
| 60 | 35 | 43% | 64% | $30,000 | $44,500 |
| 65 | 30 | 54% | 75% | $33,500 | $47,000 |
| 70 | 25 | 68% | 88% | $43,500 | $58,500 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $1.5 million holds about $47,000 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $1 million holds $32,500; $2 million holds $65,500. Can I retire on $500,000, $750,000, $1 million, $2 million, $3 million, $5 million?