The answer on these inputs
$3 million produces $120,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $100,000 of spending that is 120% coverage — the first-year withdrawal funds the spend. A constant 5.0% return still has money at year 35. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 62% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $15,144,303.
$3 million by retirement age
Funding $100,000 a year from age 60, $3 million lasts to 95 in 62% of paths on cautious returns and 82% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 83% and 96%; starting at 50 drops it to 46% and 72%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $73,000 to $102,000 a year, which is $6,083 to $8,500 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 41% | 66% | $43,000 | $70,500 |
| 50 | 45 | 46% | 72% | $46,500 | $73,000 |
| 55 | 40 | 53% | 76% | $53,000 | $81,000 |
| 60 | 35 | 62% | 82% | $58,000 | $86,000 |
| 65 | 30 | 72% | 91% | $73,000 | $102,000 |
| 70 | 25 | 83% | 96% | $86,500 | $115,000 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $3 million holds about $102,000 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $2 million holds $65,500; $5 million holds $166,000. Can I retire on $500,000, $750,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $5 million?