The answer on these inputs
$5 million produces $200,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $150,000 of spending that is 133% coverage — the first-year withdrawal funds the spend. A constant 5.0% return still has money at year 35. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 69% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $28,548,134.
$5 million by retirement age
Funding $150,000 a year from age 60, $5 million lasts to 95 in 69% of paths on cautious returns and 88% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 87% and 97%; starting at 50 drops it to 55% and 79%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $119,000 to $166,000 a year, which is $9,917 to $13,833 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 48% | 75% | $70,500 | $116,000 |
| 50 | 45 | 55% | 79% | $78,000 | $123,500 |
| 55 | 40 | 62% | 83% | $85,000 | $132,500 |
| 60 | 35 | 69% | 88% | $97,500 | $143,000 |
| 65 | 30 | 79% | 94% | $119,000 | $166,000 |
| 70 | 25 | 87% | 97% | $138,500 | $188,000 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $5 million holds about $166,000 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $3 million holds $102,000. Can I retire on $500,000, $750,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $3 million?