The answer on these inputs
$750,000 produces $30,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $40,000 of spending that is 75% coverage — the spend is larger than a 4% (or chosen) withdrawal. A constant 5.0% return exhausts the portfolio in year 27. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 22% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $1,258,093.
$750,000 by retirement age
Funding $40,000 a year from age 60, $750,000 lasts to 95 in 22% of paths on cautious returns and 33% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 40% and 56%; starting at 50 drops it to 13% and 23%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $17,500 to $24,500 a year, which is $1,458 to $2,042 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 10% | 19% | $10,500 | $17,000 |
| 50 | 45 | 13% | 23% | $11,500 | $18,500 |
| 55 | 40 | 17% | 28% | $12,500 | $19,500 |
| 60 | 35 | 22% | 33% | $14,500 | $21,500 |
| 65 | 30 | 28% | 42% | $17,500 | $24,500 |
| 70 | 25 | 40% | 56% | $21,500 | $29,000 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $750,000 holds about $24,500 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $500,000 holds $16,000; $1 million holds $32,500. Can I retire on $500,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $3 million, $5 million?