The answer on these inputs
$500,000 produces $20,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $32,000 of spending that is 63% coverage — the spend is larger than a 4% (or chosen) withdrawal. A constant 5.0% return exhausts the portfolio in year 21. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 9% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $0.
$500,000 by retirement age
Funding $32,000 a year from age 60, $500,000 lasts to 95 in 9% of paths on cautious returns and 13% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 23% and 31%; starting at 50 drops it to 5% and 8%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $11,500 to $16,000 a year, which is $958 to $1,333 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 4% | 5% | $6,500 | $11,000 |
| 50 | 45 | 5% | 8% | $7,500 | $12,000 |
| 55 | 40 | 6% | 9% | $8,000 | $12,500 |
| 60 | 35 | 9% | 13% | $9,500 | $14,000 |
| 65 | 30 | 14% | 20% | $11,500 | $16,000 |
| 70 | 25 | 23% | 31% | $14,000 | $19,000 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $500,000 holds about $16,000 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $750,000 holds $24,500. Can I retire on $750,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $3 million, $5 million?