The calculator
Years the money lasts25Exhausted in year 25 at a constant 5.0%
Success rate11%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$0
90th percentile ending$244,694
Why the band exists
A 5% average with a 4% withdrawal can last forever on paper and still fail after a bad first decade. The band is 1,000 seeded paths around the return you typed. The live demo is the same idea on a full household.
Assumptions
Start-of-year withdrawals, then the return. No fees, no taxes, no other income.