Is $2.5 million enough to retire?
$2.5 million produces $100,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $90,000 of spending that is 111% coverage — the first-year withdrawal funds the spend. A constant 5.0% return still has money at year 35. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 52% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $13,183,530. To see how long $2.5 million lasts at other spending levels, with Social Security and taxes, use the how long will my money last calculator.
How much income will $2.5 million generate?
A withdrawal rate turns a nest egg into income. The higher the rate, the more you spend now and the sooner the money can run out. Years shown at a steady 5% return, with the withdrawal raised 2.0% a year for inflation.
| Withdrawal rate | A year | A month | Lasts at a 5% return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $75,000 | $6,250 | more than 60 years |
| 3.5% | $87,500 | $7,292 | 59 years |
| 4.0% | $100,000 | $8,333 | 44 years |
| 4.5% | $112,500 | $9,375 | 35 years |
| 5.0% | $125,000 | $10,417 | 30 years |
$2.5 million plus Social Security
Social Security pays beside the portfolio, so the nest egg only has to cover the gap. Monthly income with a 4% withdrawal and benefits claimed at 67, using the estimates from Social Security’s own formula for a steady career:
| Household | Social Security | From $2.5 million | Total a month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single, $50,000 career | $2,054 | $8,333 | $10,387 |
| Single, $75,000 career | $2,694 | $8,333 | $11,027 |
| Couple, one $100,000 career and a spousal benefit | $4,998 | $8,333 | $13,331 |
| Couple, two $60,000 careers | $4,620 | $8,333 | $12,953 |
Withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401(k) are taxable income, so the spendable amount is lower: see the tax on a $100,000 401(k) withdrawal or the retirement taxes pages for your state.
How long will $2.5 million last in retirement?
Years $2.5 million lasts at a steady return, with the withdrawal raised 2.0% a year for inflation. Taking 4%, $100,000 a year, at a 5% return lasts 44 years. Social Security or a pension lowers what the portfolio has to pay, so only the gap counts.
| Withdrawal a year | 4% return | 5% return | 6% return | 7% return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75,000 (3%) | 53 years | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $100,000 (4%) | 34 years | 44 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $125,000 (5%) | 26 years | 30 years | 37 years | 57 years |
| $150,000 (6%) | 20 years | 23 years | 26 years | 32 years |
$2.5 million by retirement age
Funding $90,000 a year from age 60, $2.5 million lasts to 95 in 52% of paths on cautious returns and 74% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 77% and 93%; starting at 50 drops it to 40% and 63%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $57,500 to $81,500 a year, which is $4,792 to $6,792 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 37% | 58% | $33,500 | $57,000 |
| 50 | 45 | 40% | 63% | $37,000 | $59,000 |
| 55 | 40 | 48% | 68% | $41,500 | $64,500 |
| 60 | 35 | 52% | 74% | $48,500 | $71,500 |
| 65 | 30 | 65% | 85% | $57,500 | $81,500 |
| 70 | 25 | 77% | 93% | $71,500 | $95,500 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
Change the inputs
Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $2.5 million holds about $81,500 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $2 million holds $65,500; $3 million holds $102,000. Is it enough to retire on $250,000, $300,000, $500,000, $750,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $3 million, $4 million, $5 million?