Killion Labs Blog https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/ Retirement and portfolio research from Killion Labs: safe withdrawal rates, sequence risk, Monte Carlo, fees, and strategy. en-us Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:45:39 GMT Is the 4% Rule Still Safe? We Ran 5,000 Simulated Retirements https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/is-the-4-percent-rule-still-safe/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/is-the-4-percent-rule-still-safe/ Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Is the 4% rule still safe? Flexible 4% lasted in 100% of 5,000 simulations; rigid 4% failed 1.1%. Full safe withdrawal rate trade-off table. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) safe-withdrawal-rate 4-percent-rule retirement-withdrawals guardrails What a 1% Investment Fee Really Costs Over 40 Years https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/what-a-1-percent-fee-costs-over-40-years/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/what-a-1-percent-fee-costs-over-40-years/ Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT What a 1% fee costs over 40 years: we simulated 5,000 lifetimes at 0%, 0.5%, and 1% expense-ratio drag. The dollar gap is larger than the percentage sounds. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) fee-drag expense-ratio investment-fees investing-costs Sequence of Returns Risk: What If the Market Crashes the Year You Retire? https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/market-crash-year-you-retire/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/market-crash-year-you-retire/ Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Sequence of returns risk explained: the same 40% crash dropped success from 86% to 71% at retirement age 65, but only to 81% at age 48. 5,000 simulations. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) sequence-of-returns-risk retirement-risk market-crash decumulation Which Investing Strategy Wins? Six Strategies Benchmarked on the Same Markets https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/which-investing-strategy-wins/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/which-investing-strategy-wins/ Tue, 23 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Which investing strategy wins? We benchmarked buy & hold, rebalance, glide path, guardrails, optimizer, and panic selling across 5,000 identical market lifetimes. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) investing-strategy portfolio-benchmark guardrails rebalancing Monte Carlo Simulation in Personal Finance: Why Projections Fall Short https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/monte-carlo-simulation-personal-finance/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/monte-carlo-simulation-personal-finance/ Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Monte Carlo simulation in personal finance: a $4.3M projection landed at the 71st percentile; the median was $2.9M across 5,000 regime-aware lifetimes. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) monte-carlo financial-projections retirement-planning probability Timing the Market vs Staying Invested: 40 Years of S&P 500 Evidence https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/staying-invested-vs-timing-the-market/ https://killionlabs.com/updates/blog/staying-invested-vs-timing-the-market/ Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Timing the market vs staying invested: miss the 10 best months since 1985 and ~$744K becomes ~$264K. Forty years of S&P 500 data on why time in the market wins. hello@killionlabs.com (Berkay Kolay) market-timing stay-invested behavior-gap s-and-p-500