The calculator
At 4.0%, a $1,000,000 portfolio supports a first-year withdrawal of $40,000. Going the other way, $50,000 a year requires $1,250,000.
3% to 5% on 1,000 paths
First-year income is an identity. Whether that cheque lasts is not. The table below runs this page's portfolio through 1,000 seeded 30-year paths at 5% mean, 2% inflation, 15% volatility, seed 20260815: the same band as the checkbox above.
| Rate | First-year income | Success rate | 10th percentile ending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $30,000 | 76% | $0 |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | 64% | $0 |
| 4.0% | $40,000 | 53% | $0 |
| 5.0% | $50,000 | 33% | $0 |
What the rate means
4% is 4% of the starting balance in year one, then that dollar amount plus inflation, not 4% of the current balance. After a 30% fall, the same withdrawal is 5.7% of what is left. See safe withdrawal rate. To turn a balance and a yearly spend into a number of years, use the how long will my money last calculator. To see the first-year withdrawal as a monthly paycheck next to Social Security and pensions, use the retirement income calculator.
“Safe” is a statement about the past: the rate lasted through every retirement in the record. The sections below replay that record for different retirement lengths and portfolios, so you can see how much the answer moves.
Safe withdrawal rate by retirement length
We replayed every retirement since 1928 through the stock, bond and inflation history the Killion backtest uses: a 60/40 portfolio rebalanced each January, with the first year's withdrawal raised by actual inflation every month. Planning to 95, retiring at 65 is a 30-year retirement, at 55 a 40-year one and at 45 a 50-year one.
| Retirement | Start years | Always lasted | At 3% | At 3.5% | At 4% | At 4.5% | At 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 years (retire at 65) | 1928 to 1995 | 3.70% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 84% | 72% |
| 40 years (retire at 55) | 1928 to 1985 | 3.38% | 100% | 97% | 83% | 64% | 53% |
| 50 years (retire at 45) | 1928 to 1975 | 3.15% | 100% | 90% | 67% | 50% | 33% |
Stretching retirement from 30 to 50 years lowers the rate that lasted in every start year from 3.70% to 3.15%, and 4% goes from lasting in 94% of start years to 67%. That is why the FIRE calculator lets you set a lower rate for an early retirement.
Safe withdrawal rate by stock and bond mix
The same replay with four mixes. Each cell is the highest first-year rate that lasted in every start year for that length of retirement.
| Stocks / bonds | 30 years | 40 years | 50 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100/0 | 3.40% | 3.26% | 3.15% |
| 75/25 | 3.77% | 3.47% | 3.24% |
| 60/40 | 3.70% | 3.38% | 3.15% |
| 40/60 | 3.56% | 3.21% | 2.96% |
Of the four mixes, 75/25 had the highest always-safe rate at every length: 3.77% over 30 years and 3.24% over 50. Holding more bonds lowered it: 40/60 managed 3.56% and 2.96%, and over 50 years 4% lasted in only 29% of its start years. All stocks had a lower always-safe rate than 75/25 because 1929 hit it hardest, but it lasted more often at high rates: at 5% over 30 years, in 78% of start years against 72% for 60/40.
How we ran it: stocks are the S&P 500 with dividends through 1987 and price returns after, the series the product backtest uses, so windows that run past 1988 leave out dividends and are a little harsher than reality. Bonds are 10-year Treasuries, then the AGG bond fund from late 2003. Data runs to August 2025. Start years overlap, so 68 start years hold only about three independent 30-year periods. No fees or taxes.
The start years that set the rate
A safe withdrawal rate is set by one start year, the worst in the record. In 8 of the 12 combinations above it was 1966: no crash at first, just flat stock prices and rising inflation, then the 1973 to 1974 bear market on top. All-stock portfolios were set by 1929 at every length, and 40/60 over 50 years by 1937. The sequence of returns risk calculator replays those years one at a time, and the historical backtest runs your own plan through every one of them.
Valuations and the first-year rate
A historical safe rate is the worst case of the past, whatever markets look like on the day you retire. Some planners set year one from valuations instead. A common teaching rule is 1.5% plus half the CAPE earnings yield (1 ÷ CAPE), which gives exactly 4% at a CAPE of 20 and less when prices are high relative to earnings. The CAPE-based withdrawal calculator runs it.
Fixed or flexible spending
Every rate on this page assumes rigid spending: the same real amount every year, whatever markets do. That is the hardest case for a portfolio. Rules that cut after bad years can start higher and pay for it with lower spending in bad decades. The Guyton-Klinger calculator cuts when the withdrawal rate drifts too high, the Vanguard dynamic spending calculator lets spending fall at most 2.5% a year, and the Yale spending rule blends last year's budget with a share of the balance. Nine withdrawal rules compared puts them side by side.
Limits
Figures are pre-tax. Fees come straight off the rate: 4% with a 1% fee behaves like 3%. A single rate also hides sequence risk and whether spending can flex. We tested that in a 5,000-run study: flexible 4% with guardrails lasted in all 5,000 worlds; rigid 4% failed in 1.1%. The distribution of endings is the Monte Carlo retirement calculator. Order of returns is the sequence of returns risk calculator. The accumulation counterpart is the Coast FIRE calculator.