The calculator
At 4.0%, a $1,000,000 portfolio supports a first-year withdrawal of $40,000. Going the other way, $50,000 a year requires $1,250,000.
3% to 5% on 1,000 paths
First-year income is an identity. Whether that cheque lasts is not. The table below runs this page's portfolio through 1,000 seeded 30-year paths at 5% mean, 2% inflation, 15% volatility, seed 20260815 — the same band as the checkbox above.
| Rate | First-year income | Success rate | 10th percentile ending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $30,000 | 76% | $0 |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | 64% | $0 |
| 4.0% | $40,000 | 53% | $0 |
| 5.0% | $50,000 | 33% | $0 |
What the rate means
4% is 4% of the starting balance in year one, then that dollar amount plus inflation — not 4% of the current balance. After a 30% fall, the same withdrawal is 5.7% of what is left. See safe withdrawal rate.
Limits
Figures are pre-tax. Fees come straight off the rate: 4% with a 1% fee behaves like 3%. A single rate also hides sequence risk and whether spending can flex. We tested that in a 5,000-run study: flexible 4% with guardrails lasted in all 5,000 worlds; rigid 4% failed in 1.1%. Set year one from valuations with the CAPE-based withdrawal calculator. The distribution of endings is the Monte Carlo retirement calculator. Order of returns is the sequence of returns risk calculator. The accumulation counterpart is the Coast FIRE calculator. A university-style blend of last year's spend and a target rate is the Yale spending rule.