What a balance supports a month, raised with inflation to 95, in 9 of 10 of 1,000 simulated markets, by the age you stop working. Each figure opens its own page with the odds at other spending levels, Social Security, early access and taxes.
The headline figure is the largest first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation every year, that still leaves money at 95 in 9 of 10 of 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns. Trinity-style returns average 7% with 12% volatility and 3% inflation, close to the stock and bond mix in the Trinity study; the cautious set averages 5% with 15% volatility and 2% inflation. The same 1,000 sequences are used for every age and balance, so the figures only ever fall as the horizon gets longer. Taxes and fees come out of the withdrawal. Social Security uses SSA’s 2026 formula for a steady career; the 72(t) figure uses the IRS Single Life Table and the amortization method. More on the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
How do I know if I can retire?+
Compare what your savings can pay each year for the rest of your life with what you spend after Social Security and any pension. The tables here give the monthly amount each balance supports to 95 from each retirement age in 9 of 10 simulated markets.
Why is the safe amount lower for an early retirement?+
The money has to last longer. Retiring at 65 and planning to 95 is 30 years; retiring at 45 is 50 years, so the same balance supports less each year for the same odds.