The answer on these inputs
$1 million produces $40,000 in year one at 4.0%. Against $50,000 of spending that is 80% coverage — the spend is larger than a 4% (or chosen) withdrawal. A constant 5.0% return exhausts the portfolio in year 30. Across 1,000 seeded paths the spend lasts the full horizon in 23% of worlds; the 10th-to-90th ending range is $0 to $1,704,117.
$1 million by retirement age
Funding $50,000 a year from age 60, $1 million lasts to 95 in 23% of paths on cautious returns and 38% on Trinity-style returns. Waiting until 70 raises that to 48% and 66%; starting at 50 drops it to 16% and 25%. For 9 in 10 paths to last from 65, spending has to stay near $23,000 to $32,500 a year, which is $1,917 to $2,708 a month.
| Retire at | Years funded | Lasts: cautious | Lasts: Trinity-style | 9-in-10 spend: cautious | 9-in-10 spend: Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 12% | 22% | $13,500 | $22,500 |
| 50 | 45 | 16% | 25% | $15,000 | $24,000 |
| 55 | 40 | 18% | 32% | $17,000 | $26,000 |
| 60 | 35 | 23% | 38% | $20,000 | $29,500 |
| 65 | 30 | 34% | 49% | $23,000 | $32,500 |
| 70 | 25 | 48% | 66% | $27,500 | $37,500 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Other nest eggs
From 65 on Trinity-style returns, $1 million holds about $32,500 a year in 9 of 10 paths. $750,000 holds $24,500; $1.5 million holds $47,000. Can I retire on $500,000, $750,000, $1.5 million, $2 million, $3 million, $5 million?