What $1.5 million at 67 can pay, and the odds it lasts to 95
Retiring at 67 and planning to 95 is 28 years. Each row is a first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation after that. The odds are the share of 1,000 simulated markets in which it lasts the whole 28 years; the last column is a steady 5% return with 2% raises, which never has a bad year.
| Withdrawal | A year | A month | Trinity-style odds | Cautious odds | Steady 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $30,000 | $2,500 | 100% | 95% | 60+ years |
| 2.5% | $37,500 | $3,125 | 99% | 90% | 60+ years |
| 3.0% | $45,000 | $3,750 | 94% | 82% | 60+ years |
| 3.5% | $52,500 | $4,375 | 89% | 72% | 59 years |
| 4.0% | $60,000 | $5,000 | 81% | 59% | 44 years |
| 4.5% | $67,500 | $5,625 | 69% | 47% | 35 years |
| 5.0% | $75,000 | $6,250 | 55% | 38% | 30 years |
The 9-in-10 figure is $51,300 on Trinity-style returns and $37,200 on cautious ones. The 4% rule, built on 30-year retirements, would start at $60,000; over 28 years the simulation allows close to it.
Retiring with $1.5 million at other ages
The later you stop, the fewer years the money has to cover, so the same $1.5 million supports more each year.
| Retire at | Years to 95 | A month | A year, Trinity-style | A year, cautious |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 with $1.5 million | 55 | $2,630 | $31,500 | $18,200 |
| 45 with $1.5 million | 50 | $2,780 | $33,300 | $19,800 |
| 50 with $1.5 million | 45 | $2,980 | $35,700 | $21,900 |
| 55 with $1.5 million | 40 | $3,200 | $38,400 | $24,900 |
| 58 with $1.5 million | 37 | $3,400 | $40,800 | $27,000 |
| 60 with $1.5 million | 35 | $3,540 | $42,500 | $28,500 |
| 62 with $1.5 million | 33 | $3,730 | $44,700 | $30,300 |
| 65 with $1.5 million | 30 | $4,050 | $48,600 | $34,400 |
| 67 | 28 | $4,280 | $51,300 | $37,200 |
| 70 with $1.5 million | 25 | $4,730 | $56,700 | $42,200 |
Retiring at 67 with other balances
| Balance | A month | A year |
|---|---|---|
| $250,000 at 67 | $720 | $8,600 |
| $300,000 at 67 | $860 | $10,300 |
| $400,000 at 67 | $1,140 | $13,700 |
| $500,000 at 67 | $1,430 | $17,100 |
| $600,000 at 67 | $1,710 | $20,500 |
| $750,000 at 67 | $2,140 | $25,700 |
| $800,000 at 67 | $2,280 | $27,400 |
| $1 million at 67 | $2,850 | $34,200 |
| $1.5 million | $4,280 | $51,300 |
| $2 million at 67 | $5,700 | $68,400 |
| $2.5 million at 67 | $7,130 | $85,500 |
| $3 million at 67 | $8,550 | $102,600 |
| $4 million at 67 | $11,400 | $136,800 |
| $5 million at 67 | $14,250 | $171,000 |
| $6 million at 67 | $17,100 | $205,200 |
| $8 million at 67 | $22,800 | $273,600 |
| $10 million at 67 | $28,500 | $342,000 |
Social Security on top of $4,280 a month
The figures above are the portfolio alone. Social Security adds a benefit for life once you claim; for a steady $75,000 career, in today’s dollars:
| Claim at | Benefit a month | Portfolio a month | Together | Years on the portfolio alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | $2,694 | $4,280 | $6,974 | 0 |
| 70 | $3,340 | $4,280 | $7,620 | 3 |
Your own estimate is on Social Security if you make $75,000 and the other salary pages; the breakeven between claiming ages is on the breakeven calculator.
Tax on $51,300 a year of withdrawals
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, every dollar withdrawn is ordinary income. This is the federal tax a $51,300 withdrawal adds at 67, with Social Security alongside, on 2026 rules (estimates):
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $5,458 | 11% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $3,567 | 7% |
The calculator, set to $1.5 million at 67
Set to $51,300 a year from 67 for 28 years. Change the spending, add a pension or Social Security, or try your own return.
Taking $51,300 a year ($4,275 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 63, around age 129. To make it last exactly 28 years, you could start at $77,098 a year.
- How long $1.5 million lasts at every withdrawal.
- Is $1.5 million enough to retire?
- Can I retire? Every age and balance
How it is worked out
The headline figure is the largest first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation every year, that still leaves money at 95 in 9 of 10 of 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns. Trinity-style returns average 7% with 12% volatility and 3% inflation, close to the stock and bond mix in the Trinity study; the cautious set averages 5% with 15% volatility and 2% inflation. The same 1,000 sequences are used for every age and balance, so the figures only ever fall as the horizon gets longer. Taxes and fees come out of the withdrawal. Social Security uses SSA’s 2026 formula for a steady career; the 72(t) figure uses the IRS Single Life Table and the amortization method. More on the methodology page.