Almost every retirement calculator worth using sits behind an account wall. This one does not. It runs the same simulation engine paying customers run — a five-regime Markov switching market model, 1,000 paths, seeded so results reproduce — on a sample household we made up so there is nothing of yours to hand over.
What you can do in the demo
- Run 1,000 market lifetimes. The output is a distribution — a median, a range and a probability of success — not a single confident number.
- Change the plan and re-run. Income, spending, allocation and retirement age are all editable.
- Schedule a crash. Drop a market shock into a specific year and watch what sequence-of-returns risk actually does to the odds.
- Switch to today's dollars. Forty-year nominal figures are technically correct and practically misleading.
What the demo is not
It is not your plan. The household is fictional, the numbers are ours, and nothing you do here is saved or sent anywhere. To run the same engine against your own holdings you need an account, because that requires linking accounts read-only and storing a plan.
It is also not advice. Killion is software, not an adviser, and the simulated outcomes are hypothetical — the full disclaimer is at the foot of this page.
How the simulation works
Returns are drawn from a model that moves between five market states — expansion, recession, stagflation, crisis and recovery — so bad years cluster the way they historically have instead of being drawn independently. Asset classes are correlated, inflation surprises are correlated with those returns, and every run is seeded so the same inputs reproduce the same output.
If you want the concepts first, start with Monte Carlo simulation and sequence of returns risk.
Other free tools
If you want a quick number rather than a full simulation, these run in your browser with no account either:
- Coast FIRE calculator — how much you need invested today for compounding alone to reach your target.
- Safe withdrawal rate calculator — turn a portfolio into a retirement income, or an income into the portfolio it needs.
- Investment fee calculator — what 1% a year removes over a few decades.
Deciding between tools? The comparison pages cover Killion against ProjectionLab, Boldin, Empower, Monarch and Kubera, including where each of them is the better choice.