How long $1.5 million lasts at each withdrawal
Each row is a first-year withdrawal that then rises 2% a year. The return is what the money left in the account earns; each withdrawal opens its own page with the year-by-year balance.
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Share of balance | At 3% | At 5% | At 7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 3.3% | 36 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 4.0% | 29 years | 44 years | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 4.7% | 24 years | 33 years | 60+ years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 5.3% | 21 years | 27 years | 44 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 6.7% | 17 years | 20 years | 26 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 8.0% | 14 years | 16 years | 19 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 10.0% | 11 years | 12 years | 14 years |
The odds $1.5 million lasts 30 years
A steady return hides the order of good and bad years. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which each withdrawal still has money left after 30 years. Sixty-five to 95 is 30 years.
| Withdrawal a year | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | 89% | 70% |
| $60,000 | 77% | 53% |
| $70,000 | 59% | 40% |
| $80,000 | 41% | 26% |
| $100,000 | 16% | 11% |
| $120,000 | 4% | 4% |
| $150,000 | 0% | 1% |
How much $1.5 million pays for a set number of years
The other way round: the largest first-year withdrawal, raised 2% a year, that spends $1.5 million to zero in exactly that many years at a steady 5% return.
| Years | First year | A month | Share of balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | $97,411 | $8,118 | 6.5% |
| 25 | $83,133 | $6,928 | 5.5% |
| 30 | $73,778 | $6,148 | 4.9% |
| 35 | $67,233 | $5,603 | 4.5% |
| 40 | $62,441 | $5,203 | 4.2% |
How long $1.5 million lasts with Social Security
Say you spend $84,000 a year in total and claim Social Security at 67. Until then the portfolio pays all of it; after that, only what the benefit does not cover. Retiring later shortens the stretch the portfolio carries alone.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 33 years | 35 years | 37 years |
| $2,000 | 38 years | 41 years | 44 years |
| $2,500 | 44 years | 50 years | 55 years |
Estimate your own benefit on Social Security by salary.
The calculator, set to $1.5 million
Set to $60,000 a year from 65. Change the withdrawal, enter it monthly, add Social Security or a pension, or set your own return and inflation.
Taking $60,000 a year ($5,000 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $73,778 a year.
How long other balances last
| Balance | Withdrawal | Lasts at 5% |
|---|---|---|
| How long $100,000 lasts | $8,000 | 16 years |
| How long $150,000 lasts | $12,000 | 16 years |
| How long $200,000 lasts | $16,000 | 16 years |
| How long $250,000 lasts | $20,000 | 16 years |
| How long $300,000 lasts | $22,000 | 18 years |
| How long $350,000 lasts | $25,000 | 18 years |
| How long $400,000 lasts | $27,000 | 19 years |
| How long $450,000 lasts | $30,000 | 20 years |
| How long $500,000 lasts | $32,000 | 21 years |
| How long $600,000 lasts | $35,000 | 24 years |
| How long $700,000 lasts | $38,000 | 26 years |
| How long $750,000 lasts | $40,000 | 27 years |
| How long $800,000 lasts | $42,000 | 28 years |
| How long $900,000 lasts | $46,000 | 29 years |
| How long $1 million lasts | $50,000 | 30 years |
| How long $1.25 million lasts | $55,000 | 37 years |
| $1.5 million | $60,000 | 44 years |
| How long $1.75 million lasts | $70,000 | 44 years |
| How long $2 million lasts | $80,000 | 44 years |
| How long $2.5 million lasts | $90,000 | 55 years |
| How long $3 million lasts | $100,000 | 60+ years |
| How long $4 million lasts | $120,000 | 60+ years |
| How long $5 million lasts | $150,000 | 60+ years |
- Is $1.5 million enough to retire? Income at 4% and the odds by retirement age.
- Can I retire at 55 with $1.5 million?
- Can I retire at 60 with $1.5 million?
- Can I retire at 65 with $1.5 million?
- RMD on $1.5 million: what the IRS requires from 73 or 75 if it is in a traditional IRA or 401(k).
- How long savings last, every balance
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.