$2 million at $120,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 87. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $174,817; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,000,000 | $120,000 | $1,974,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,974,000 | $122,400 | $1,944,180 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,944,180 | $124,848 | $1,910,299 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,910,299 | $127,345 | $1,872,101 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,872,101 | $129,892 | $1,829,320 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,829,320 | $132,490 | $1,781,672 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,781,672 | $135,139 | $1,728,859 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,728,859 | $137,842 | $1,670,567 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,670,567 | $140,599 | $1,606,467 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,606,467 | $143,411 | $1,536,208 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,536,208 | $146,279 | $1,459,426 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,459,426 | $149,205 | $1,375,732 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,375,732 | $152,189 | $1,284,720 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,284,720 | $155,233 | $1,185,961 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,185,961 | $158,337 | $1,079,005 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,079,005 | $161,504 | $963,376 |
| 17 | 81 | $963,376 | $164,734 | $838,574 |
| 18 | 82 | $838,574 | $168,029 | $704,072 |
| 19 | 83 | $704,072 | $171,390 | $559,316 |
| 20 | 84 | $559,316 | $174,817 | $403,724 |
| 21 | 85 | $403,724 | $178,314 | $236,681 |
| 22 | 86 | $236,681 | $181,880 | $57,541 |
| 23 | 87 | $57,541 | $57,541 | $0 |
The odds $2 million lasts at $120,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $120,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 64% | 47% |
| 25 years | 41% | 27% |
| 30 years | 26% | 17% |
| 35 years | 18% | 13% |
| 40 years | 14% | 10% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 23 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 4% | 27 years | 20 years | 19 years |
| 5% | 33 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 6% | 50 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 32 years | 26 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $120,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 27 years | 28 years | 29 years |
| $2,000 | 29 years | 31 years | 32 years |
| $2,500 | 31 years | 34 years | 35 years |
Tax on a $120,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $21,440 | 18% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $13,378 | 11% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $120,000 a year ($10,000 a month) from $2,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 23, around age 87. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $98,371 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 59 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 44 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 30 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 23 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 17 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2 million lasts. The same $120,000 a year from $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2.5 million, $3 million or $4 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.