$2 million at $60,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $87,409; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,000,000 | $60,000 | $2,037,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,037,000 | $61,200 | $2,074,590 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,074,590 | $62,424 | $2,112,774 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,112,774 | $63,672 | $2,151,557 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,151,557 | $64,946 | $2,190,942 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,190,942 | $66,245 | $2,230,932 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,230,932 | $67,570 | $2,271,530 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,271,530 | $68,921 | $2,312,739 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,312,739 | $70,300 | $2,354,562 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,354,562 | $71,706 | $2,396,999 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,396,999 | $73,140 | $2,440,052 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,440,052 | $74,602 | $2,483,722 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,483,722 | $76,095 | $2,528,009 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,528,009 | $77,616 | $2,572,912 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,572,912 | $79,169 | $2,618,431 |
| 16 | 80 | $2,618,431 | $80,752 | $2,664,563 |
| 17 | 81 | $2,664,563 | $82,367 | $2,711,305 |
| 18 | 82 | $2,711,305 | $84,014 | $2,758,655 |
| 19 | 83 | $2,758,655 | $85,695 | $2,806,608 |
| 20 | 84 | $2,806,608 | $87,409 | $2,855,160 |
| 21 | 85 | $2,855,160 | $89,157 | $2,904,303 |
| 22 | 86 | $2,904,303 | $90,940 | $2,954,031 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,954,031 | $92,759 | $3,004,336 |
| 24 | 88 | $3,004,336 | $94,614 | $3,055,208 |
| 25 | 89 | $3,055,208 | $96,506 | $3,106,637 |
| 26 | 90 | $3,106,637 | $98,436 | $3,158,611 |
| 27 | 91 | $3,158,611 | $100,405 | $3,211,116 |
| 28 | 92 | $3,211,116 | $102,413 | $3,264,138 |
| 29 | 93 | $3,264,138 | $104,461 | $3,317,660 |
| 30 | 94 | $3,317,660 | $106,551 | $3,371,665 |
| 31 | 95 | $3,371,665 | $108,682 | $3,426,133 |
| 32 | 96 | $3,426,133 | $110,855 | $3,481,041 |
| 33 | 97 | $3,481,041 | $113,072 | $3,536,367 |
| 34 | 98 | $3,536,367 | $115,334 | $3,592,085 |
| 35 | 99 | $3,592,085 | $117,641 | $3,648,167 |
| 36 | 100 | $3,648,167 | $119,993 | $3,704,582 |
| 37 | 101 | $3,704,582 | $122,393 | $3,761,298 |
| 38 | 102 | $3,761,298 | $124,841 | $3,818,280 |
| 39 | 103 | $3,818,280 | $127,338 | $3,875,489 |
| 40 | 104 | $3,875,489 | $129,885 | $3,932,884 |
The odds $2 million lasts at $60,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $60,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 100% | 95% |
| 25 years | 98% | 87% |
| 30 years | 93% | 78% |
| 35 years | 88% | 68% |
| 40 years | 83% | 60% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 41 years | 34 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 53 years | 40 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 53 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $60,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $60,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $7,158 | 12% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $5,288 | 9% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $60,000 a year ($5,000 a month) from $2,000,000 at a steady 5.0% return, the portfolio is still standing after 100 years. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $98,371 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 59 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 44 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 30 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 23 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 17 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2 million lasts. The same $60,000 a year from $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.5 million or $1.75 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.