$3 million at $120,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $174,817; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $3,000,000 | $120,000 | $3,024,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $3,024,000 | $122,400 | $3,046,680 |
| 3 | 67 | $3,046,680 | $124,848 | $3,067,924 |
| 4 | 68 | $3,067,924 | $127,345 | $3,087,608 |
| 5 | 69 | $3,087,608 | $129,892 | $3,105,601 |
| 6 | 70 | $3,105,601 | $132,490 | $3,121,767 |
| 7 | 71 | $3,121,767 | $135,139 | $3,135,959 |
| 8 | 72 | $3,135,959 | $137,842 | $3,148,023 |
| 9 | 73 | $3,148,023 | $140,599 | $3,157,795 |
| 10 | 74 | $3,157,795 | $143,411 | $3,165,103 |
| 11 | 75 | $3,165,103 | $146,279 | $3,169,765 |
| 12 | 76 | $3,169,765 | $149,205 | $3,171,588 |
| 13 | 77 | $3,171,588 | $152,189 | $3,170,369 |
| 14 | 78 | $3,170,369 | $155,233 | $3,165,893 |
| 15 | 79 | $3,165,893 | $158,337 | $3,157,933 |
| 16 | 80 | $3,157,933 | $161,504 | $3,146,250 |
| 17 | 81 | $3,146,250 | $164,734 | $3,130,592 |
| 18 | 82 | $3,130,592 | $168,029 | $3,110,691 |
| 19 | 83 | $3,110,691 | $171,390 | $3,086,267 |
| 20 | 84 | $3,086,267 | $174,817 | $3,057,022 |
| 21 | 85 | $3,057,022 | $178,314 | $3,022,644 |
| 22 | 86 | $3,022,644 | $181,880 | $2,982,802 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,982,802 | $185,518 | $2,937,148 |
| 24 | 88 | $2,937,148 | $189,228 | $2,885,317 |
| 25 | 89 | $2,885,317 | $193,012 | $2,826,919 |
| 26 | 90 | $2,826,919 | $196,873 | $2,761,549 |
| 27 | 91 | $2,761,549 | $200,810 | $2,688,776 |
| 28 | 92 | $2,688,776 | $204,826 | $2,608,147 |
| 29 | 93 | $2,608,147 | $208,923 | $2,519,185 |
| 30 | 94 | $2,519,185 | $213,101 | $2,421,388 |
| 31 | 95 | $2,421,388 | $217,363 | $2,314,226 |
| 32 | 96 | $2,314,226 | $221,711 | $2,197,141 |
| 33 | 97 | $2,197,141 | $226,145 | $2,069,546 |
| 34 | 98 | $2,069,546 | $230,668 | $1,930,822 |
| 35 | 99 | $1,930,822 | $235,281 | $1,780,318 |
| 36 | 100 | $1,780,318 | $239,987 | $1,617,347 |
| 37 | 101 | $1,617,347 | $244,786 | $1,441,189 |
| 38 | 102 | $1,441,189 | $249,682 | $1,251,082 |
| 39 | 103 | $1,251,082 | $254,676 | $1,046,227 |
| 40 | 104 | $1,046,227 | $259,769 | $825,780 |
The odds $3 million lasts at $120,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $120,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 26 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $120,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 59 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $120,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $21,440 | 18% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $13,378 | 11% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $120,000 a year ($10,000 a month) from $3,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $147,556 a year.
Other withdrawals from $3 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 60+ years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 44 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 30 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 20 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 15 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $3 million lasts. The same $120,000 a year from $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $2.5 million or $4 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.