$4 million at $120,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $174,817; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $4,000,000 | $120,000 | $4,074,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $4,074,000 | $122,400 | $4,149,180 |
| 3 | 67 | $4,149,180 | $124,848 | $4,225,549 |
| 4 | 68 | $4,225,549 | $127,345 | $4,303,114 |
| 5 | 69 | $4,303,114 | $129,892 | $4,381,883 |
| 6 | 70 | $4,381,883 | $132,490 | $4,461,863 |
| 7 | 71 | $4,461,863 | $135,139 | $4,543,060 |
| 8 | 72 | $4,543,060 | $137,842 | $4,625,478 |
| 9 | 73 | $4,625,478 | $140,599 | $4,709,123 |
| 10 | 74 | $4,709,123 | $143,411 | $4,793,998 |
| 11 | 75 | $4,793,998 | $146,279 | $4,880,104 |
| 12 | 76 | $4,880,104 | $149,205 | $4,967,444 |
| 13 | 77 | $4,967,444 | $152,189 | $5,056,018 |
| 14 | 78 | $5,056,018 | $155,233 | $5,145,824 |
| 15 | 79 | $5,145,824 | $158,337 | $5,236,861 |
| 16 | 80 | $5,236,861 | $161,504 | $5,329,125 |
| 17 | 81 | $5,329,125 | $164,734 | $5,422,610 |
| 18 | 82 | $5,422,610 | $168,029 | $5,517,310 |
| 19 | 83 | $5,517,310 | $171,390 | $5,613,217 |
| 20 | 84 | $5,613,217 | $174,817 | $5,710,320 |
| 21 | 85 | $5,710,320 | $178,314 | $5,808,606 |
| 22 | 86 | $5,808,606 | $181,880 | $5,908,062 |
| 23 | 87 | $5,908,062 | $185,518 | $6,008,672 |
| 24 | 88 | $6,008,672 | $189,228 | $6,110,416 |
| 25 | 89 | $6,110,416 | $193,012 | $6,213,274 |
| 26 | 90 | $6,213,274 | $196,873 | $6,317,222 |
| 27 | 91 | $6,317,222 | $200,810 | $6,422,232 |
| 28 | 92 | $6,422,232 | $204,826 | $6,528,276 |
| 29 | 93 | $6,528,276 | $208,923 | $6,635,321 |
| 30 | 94 | $6,635,321 | $213,101 | $6,743,330 |
| 31 | 95 | $6,743,330 | $217,363 | $6,852,265 |
| 32 | 96 | $6,852,265 | $221,711 | $6,962,082 |
| 33 | 97 | $6,962,082 | $226,145 | $7,072,734 |
| 34 | 98 | $7,072,734 | $230,668 | $7,184,170 |
| 35 | 99 | $7,184,170 | $235,281 | $7,296,333 |
| 36 | 100 | $7,296,333 | $239,987 | $7,409,164 |
| 37 | 101 | $7,409,164 | $244,786 | $7,522,596 |
| 38 | 102 | $7,522,596 | $249,682 | $7,636,559 |
| 39 | 103 | $7,636,559 | $254,676 | $7,750,978 |
| 40 | 104 | $7,750,978 | $259,769 | $7,865,769 |
The odds $4 million lasts at $120,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $120,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 100% | 95% |
| 25 years | 98% | 87% |
| 30 years | 93% | 78% |
| 35 years | 88% | 68% |
| 40 years | 83% | 60% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 41 years | 34 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 53 years | 40 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 53 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $120,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $120,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $21,440 | 18% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $13,378 | 11% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $120,000 a year ($10,000 a month) from $4,000,000 at a steady 5.0% return, the portfolio is still standing after 100 years. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $196,742 a year.
Other withdrawals from $4 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 60+ years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 50 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 30 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 22 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 17 years |
| $400,000 | $33,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $4 million lasts. The same $120,000 a year from $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $2.5 million or $3 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.