$2 million at $70,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 123. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $101,977; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,000,000 | $70,000 | $2,026,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,026,500 | $71,400 | $2,052,855 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,052,855 | $72,828 | $2,079,028 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,079,028 | $74,285 | $2,104,981 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,104,981 | $75,770 | $2,130,671 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,130,671 | $77,286 | $2,156,055 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,156,055 | $78,831 | $2,181,085 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,181,085 | $80,408 | $2,205,711 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,205,711 | $82,016 | $2,229,879 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,229,879 | $83,656 | $2,253,534 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,253,534 | $85,330 | $2,276,614 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,276,614 | $87,036 | $2,299,057 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,299,057 | $88,777 | $2,320,794 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,320,794 | $90,552 | $2,341,754 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,341,754 | $92,364 | $2,361,860 |
| 16 | 80 | $2,361,860 | $94,211 | $2,381,031 |
| 17 | 81 | $2,381,031 | $96,095 | $2,399,183 |
| 18 | 82 | $2,399,183 | $98,017 | $2,416,225 |
| 19 | 83 | $2,416,225 | $99,977 | $2,432,060 |
| 20 | 84 | $2,432,060 | $101,977 | $2,446,587 |
| 21 | 85 | $2,446,587 | $104,016 | $2,459,699 |
| 22 | 86 | $2,459,699 | $106,097 | $2,471,283 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,471,283 | $108,219 | $2,481,218 |
| 24 | 88 | $2,481,218 | $110,383 | $2,489,376 |
| 25 | 89 | $2,489,376 | $112,591 | $2,495,625 |
| 26 | 90 | $2,495,625 | $114,842 | $2,499,822 |
| 27 | 91 | $2,499,822 | $117,139 | $2,501,817 |
| 28 | 92 | $2,501,817 | $119,482 | $2,501,451 |
| 29 | 93 | $2,501,451 | $121,872 | $2,498,558 |
| 30 | 94 | $2,498,558 | $124,309 | $2,492,962 |
| 31 | 95 | $2,492,962 | $126,795 | $2,484,475 |
| 32 | 96 | $2,484,475 | $129,331 | $2,472,901 |
| 33 | 97 | $2,472,901 | $131,918 | $2,458,032 |
| 34 | 98 | $2,458,032 | $134,556 | $2,439,650 |
| 35 | 99 | $2,439,650 | $137,247 | $2,417,522 |
| 36 | 100 | $2,417,522 | $139,992 | $2,391,407 |
| 37 | 101 | $2,391,407 | $142,792 | $2,361,045 |
| 38 | 102 | $2,361,045 | $145,648 | $2,326,167 |
| 39 | 103 | $2,326,167 | $148,561 | $2,286,487 |
| 40 | 104 | $2,286,487 | $151,532 | $2,241,702 |
The odds $2 million lasts at $70,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $70,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 91% |
| 25 years | 93% | 80% |
| 30 years | 86% | 66% |
| 35 years | 79% | 55% |
| 40 years | 72% | 46% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 42 years | 34 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 59 years | 41 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 58 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $70,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $70,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $9,490 | 14% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $6,488 | 9% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $70,000 a year ($5,833 a month) from $2,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 59, around age 123. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $98,371 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 59 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 44 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 30 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 23 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 17 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2 million lasts. The same $70,000 a year from $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.5 million or $1.75 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.