$2 million at $150,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 81. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $218,522; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,000,000 | $150,000 | $1,942,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,942,500 | $153,000 | $1,878,975 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,878,975 | $156,060 | $1,809,061 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,809,061 | $159,181 | $1,732,374 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,732,374 | $162,365 | $1,648,509 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,648,509 | $165,612 | $1,557,042 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,557,042 | $168,924 | $1,457,523 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,457,523 | $172,303 | $1,349,482 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,349,482 | $175,749 | $1,232,419 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,232,419 | $179,264 | $1,105,813 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,105,813 | $182,849 | $969,112 |
| 12 | 76 | $969,112 | $186,506 | $821,736 |
| 13 | 77 | $821,736 | $190,236 | $663,075 |
| 14 | 78 | $663,075 | $194,041 | $492,486 |
| 15 | 79 | $492,486 | $197,922 | $309,292 |
| 16 | 80 | $309,292 | $201,880 | $112,783 |
| 17 | 81 | $112,783 | $112,783 | $0 |
The odds $2 million lasts at $150,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $150,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 29% | 22% |
| 25 years | 14% | 11% |
| 30 years | 8% | 6% |
| 35 years | 5% | 4% |
| 40 years | 3% | 3% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 17 years | 15 years | 14 years |
| 4% | 19 years | 16 years | 15 years |
| 5% | 21 years | 17 years | 16 years |
| 6% | 25 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 7% | 31 years | 21 years | 19 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $150,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 19 years | 20 years | 20 years |
| $2,000 | 20 years | 21 years | 21 years |
| $2,500 | 21 years | 22 years | 23 years |
Tax on a $150,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $29,072 | 19% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $20,770 | 14% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $150,000 a year ($12,500 a month) from $2,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 17, around age 81. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $98,371 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 59 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 44 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 30 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 23 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 17 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2 million lasts. The same $150,000 a year from $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2.5 million, $3 million, $4 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.