$1.5 million at $120,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 80. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $174,817; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,500,000 | $120,000 | $1,449,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,449,000 | $122,400 | $1,392,930 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,392,930 | $124,848 | $1,331,486 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,331,486 | $127,345 | $1,264,348 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,264,348 | $129,892 | $1,191,179 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,191,179 | $132,490 | $1,111,624 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,111,624 | $135,139 | $1,025,309 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,025,309 | $137,842 | $931,840 |
| 9 | 73 | $931,840 | $140,599 | $830,803 |
| 10 | 74 | $830,803 | $143,411 | $721,761 |
| 11 | 75 | $721,761 | $146,279 | $604,256 |
| 12 | 76 | $604,256 | $149,205 | $477,803 |
| 13 | 77 | $477,803 | $152,189 | $341,895 |
| 14 | 78 | $341,895 | $155,233 | $195,995 |
| 15 | 79 | $195,995 | $158,337 | $39,541 |
| 16 | 80 | $39,541 | $39,541 | $0 |
The odds $1.5 million lasts at $120,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $120,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 21% | 16% |
| 25 years | 10% | 8% |
| 30 years | 4% | 4% |
| 35 years | 3% | 3% |
| 40 years | 2% | 2% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 16 years | 14 years | 13 years |
| 4% | 17 years | 15 years | 14 years |
| 5% | 19 years | 16 years | 15 years |
| 6% | 22 years | 17 years | 16 years |
| 7% | 26 years | 19 years | 17 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $120,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 18 years | 19 years | 19 years |
| $2,000 | 19 years | 20 years | 21 years |
| $2,500 | 20 years | 22 years | 23 years |
Tax on a $120,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $21,440 | 18% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $13,378 | 11% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $120,000 a year ($10,000 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 16, around age 80. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $73,778 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 44 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 33 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 27 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 20 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.5 million lasts. The same $120,000 a year from $1.25 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $2.5 million, $3 million or $4 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.