$2.5 million at $120,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 96. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $174,817; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,500,000 | $120,000 | $2,499,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,499,000 | $122,400 | $2,495,430 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,495,430 | $124,848 | $2,489,111 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,489,111 | $127,345 | $2,479,854 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,479,854 | $129,892 | $2,467,461 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,467,461 | $132,490 | $2,451,720 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,451,720 | $135,139 | $2,432,409 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,432,409 | $137,842 | $2,409,295 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,409,295 | $140,599 | $2,382,131 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,382,131 | $143,411 | $2,350,656 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,350,656 | $146,279 | $2,314,595 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,314,595 | $149,205 | $2,273,660 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,273,660 | $152,189 | $2,227,544 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,227,544 | $155,233 | $2,175,927 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,175,927 | $158,337 | $2,118,469 |
| 16 | 80 | $2,118,469 | $161,504 | $2,054,813 |
| 17 | 81 | $2,054,813 | $164,734 | $1,984,583 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,984,583 | $168,029 | $1,907,382 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,907,382 | $171,390 | $1,822,792 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,822,792 | $174,817 | $1,730,373 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,730,373 | $178,314 | $1,629,662 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,629,662 | $181,880 | $1,520,171 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,520,171 | $185,518 | $1,401,387 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,401,387 | $189,228 | $1,272,767 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,272,767 | $193,012 | $1,133,742 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,133,742 | $196,873 | $983,713 |
| 27 | 91 | $983,713 | $200,810 | $822,047 |
| 28 | 92 | $822,047 | $204,826 | $648,082 |
| 29 | 93 | $648,082 | $208,923 | $461,117 |
| 30 | 94 | $461,117 | $213,101 | $260,417 |
| 31 | 95 | $260,417 | $217,363 | $45,206 |
| 32 | 96 | $45,206 | $45,206 | $0 |
The odds $2.5 million lasts at $120,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $120,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 88% | 71% |
| 25 years | 71% | 51% |
| 30 years | 54% | 37% |
| 35 years | 43% | 27% |
| 40 years | 36% | 21% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 32 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 4% | 42 years | 27 years | 24 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 32 years | 27 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 41 years | 32 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 40 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $120,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 39 years | 41 years | 42 years |
| $2,000 | 43 years | 46 years | 48 years |
| $2,500 | 48 years | 52 years | 55 years |
Tax on a $120,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $21,440 | 18% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $13,378 | 11% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $120,000 a year ($10,000 a month) from $2,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 32, around age 96. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $122,964 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 60+ years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 44 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 32 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 23 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 16 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2.5 million lasts. The same $120,000 a year from $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $3 million or $4 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.