$1.5 million at $80,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 91. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $116,545; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,500,000 | $80,000 | $1,491,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,491,000 | $81,600 | $1,479,870 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,479,870 | $83,232 | $1,466,470 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,466,470 | $84,897 | $1,450,652 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,450,652 | $86,595 | $1,432,260 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,432,260 | $88,326 | $1,411,130 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,411,130 | $90,093 | $1,387,089 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,387,089 | $91,895 | $1,359,954 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,359,954 | $93,733 | $1,329,533 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,329,533 | $95,607 | $1,295,621 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,295,621 | $97,520 | $1,258,007 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,258,007 | $99,470 | $1,216,464 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,216,464 | $101,459 | $1,170,755 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,170,755 | $103,489 | $1,120,629 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,120,629 | $105,558 | $1,065,825 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,065,825 | $107,669 | $1,006,063 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,006,063 | $109,823 | $941,052 |
| 18 | 82 | $941,052 | $112,019 | $870,484 |
| 19 | 83 | $870,484 | $114,260 | $794,036 |
| 20 | 84 | $794,036 | $116,545 | $711,366 |
| 21 | 85 | $711,366 | $118,876 | $622,114 |
| 22 | 86 | $622,114 | $121,253 | $525,904 |
| 23 | 87 | $525,904 | $123,678 | $422,337 |
| 24 | 88 | $422,337 | $126,152 | $310,994 |
| 25 | 89 | $310,994 | $128,675 | $191,435 |
| 26 | 90 | $191,435 | $131,248 | $63,196 |
| 27 | 91 | $63,196 | $63,196 | $0 |
The odds $1.5 million lasts at $80,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $80,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 79% | 60% |
| 25 years | 57% | 40% |
| 30 years | 41% | 26% |
| 35 years | 31% | 18% |
| 40 years | 24% | 15% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 27 years | 21 years | 19 years |
| 4% | 33 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 5% | 46 years | 27 years | 23 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 32 years | 27 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 44 years | 32 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $80,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 37 years | 39 years | 41 years |
| $2,000 | 43 years | 47 years | 51 years |
| $2,500 | 52 years | 60 years | 60+ years |
Tax on an $80,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $11,822 | 15% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $7,688 | 10% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $80,000 a year ($6,667 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 27, around age 91. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $73,778 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 44 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 33 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 27 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 20 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.5 million lasts. The same $80,000 a year from $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.75 million, $2 million or $2.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.