$1.5 million at $60,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $87,409; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,500,000 | $60,000 | $1,512,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,512,000 | $61,200 | $1,523,340 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,523,340 | $62,424 | $1,533,962 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,533,962 | $63,672 | $1,543,804 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,543,804 | $64,946 | $1,552,801 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,552,801 | $66,245 | $1,560,884 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,560,884 | $67,570 | $1,567,980 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,567,980 | $68,921 | $1,574,011 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,574,011 | $70,300 | $1,578,897 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,578,897 | $71,706 | $1,582,552 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,582,552 | $73,140 | $1,584,882 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,584,882 | $74,602 | $1,585,794 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,585,794 | $76,095 | $1,585,184 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,585,184 | $77,616 | $1,582,946 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,582,946 | $79,169 | $1,578,967 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,578,967 | $80,752 | $1,573,125 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,573,125 | $82,367 | $1,565,296 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,565,296 | $84,014 | $1,555,346 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,555,346 | $85,695 | $1,543,133 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,543,133 | $87,409 | $1,528,511 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,528,511 | $89,157 | $1,511,322 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,511,322 | $90,940 | $1,491,401 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,491,401 | $92,759 | $1,468,574 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,468,574 | $94,614 | $1,442,658 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,442,658 | $96,506 | $1,413,460 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,413,460 | $98,436 | $1,380,774 |
| 27 | 91 | $1,380,774 | $100,405 | $1,344,388 |
| 28 | 92 | $1,344,388 | $102,413 | $1,304,073 |
| 29 | 93 | $1,304,073 | $104,461 | $1,259,592 |
| 30 | 94 | $1,259,592 | $106,551 | $1,210,694 |
| 31 | 95 | $1,210,694 | $108,682 | $1,157,113 |
| 32 | 96 | $1,157,113 | $110,855 | $1,098,570 |
| 33 | 97 | $1,098,570 | $113,072 | $1,034,773 |
| 34 | 98 | $1,034,773 | $115,334 | $965,411 |
| 35 | 99 | $965,411 | $117,641 | $890,159 |
| 36 | 100 | $890,159 | $119,993 | $808,674 |
| 37 | 101 | $808,674 | $122,393 | $720,595 |
| 38 | 102 | $720,595 | $124,841 | $625,541 |
| 39 | 103 | $625,541 | $127,338 | $523,113 |
| 40 | 104 | $523,113 | $129,885 | $412,890 |
The odds $1.5 million lasts at $60,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $60,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 25 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $60,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $60,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $7,158 | 12% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $5,288 | 9% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $60,000 a year ($5,000 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $73,778 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 44 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 33 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 27 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 20 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.5 million lasts. The same $60,000 a year from $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.75 million or $2 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.