$1.5 million at $50,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $72,841; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,500,000 | $50,000 | $1,522,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,522,500 | $51,000 | $1,545,075 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,545,075 | $52,020 | $1,567,708 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,567,708 | $53,060 | $1,590,380 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,590,380 | $54,122 | $1,613,071 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,613,071 | $55,204 | $1,635,760 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,635,760 | $56,308 | $1,658,425 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,658,425 | $57,434 | $1,681,040 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,681,040 | $58,583 | $1,703,580 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,703,580 | $59,755 | $1,726,017 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,726,017 | $60,950 | $1,748,320 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,748,320 | $62,169 | $1,770,459 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,770,459 | $63,412 | $1,792,399 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,792,399 | $64,680 | $1,814,105 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,814,105 | $65,974 | $1,835,538 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,835,538 | $67,293 | $1,856,656 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,856,656 | $68,639 | $1,877,418 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,877,418 | $70,012 | $1,897,776 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,897,776 | $71,412 | $1,917,682 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,917,682 | $72,841 | $1,937,084 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,937,084 | $74,297 | $1,955,925 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,955,925 | $75,783 | $1,974,149 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,974,149 | $77,299 | $1,991,693 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,991,693 | $78,845 | $2,008,490 |
| 25 | 89 | $2,008,490 | $80,422 | $2,024,472 |
| 26 | 90 | $2,024,472 | $82,030 | $2,039,564 |
| 27 | 91 | $2,039,564 | $83,671 | $2,053,687 |
| 28 | 92 | $2,053,687 | $85,344 | $2,066,760 |
| 29 | 93 | $2,066,760 | $87,051 | $2,078,694 |
| 30 | 94 | $2,078,694 | $88,792 | $2,089,397 |
| 31 | 95 | $2,089,397 | $90,568 | $2,098,771 |
| 32 | 96 | $2,098,771 | $92,379 | $2,106,711 |
| 33 | 97 | $2,106,711 | $94,227 | $2,113,108 |
| 34 | 98 | $2,113,108 | $96,112 | $2,117,846 |
| 35 | 99 | $2,117,846 | $98,034 | $2,120,803 |
| 36 | 100 | $2,120,803 | $99,994 | $2,121,849 |
| 37 | 101 | $2,121,849 | $101,994 | $2,120,847 |
| 38 | 102 | $2,120,847 | $104,034 | $2,117,654 |
| 39 | 103 | $2,117,654 | $106,115 | $2,112,116 |
| 40 | 104 | $2,112,116 | $108,237 | $2,104,072 |
The odds $1.5 million lasts at $50,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $50,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 92% |
| 25 years | 94% | 82% |
| 30 years | 89% | 70% |
| 35 years | 82% | 60% |
| 40 years | 76% | 51% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 36 years | 31 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 45 years | 36 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 45 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $50,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $50,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $5,302 | 11% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $3,278 | 7% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $50,000 a year ($4,167 a month) from $1,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 68, around age 132. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $73,778 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 44 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 33 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 27 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 20 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.5 million lasts. The same $50,000 a year from $500,000, $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million or $1.25 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.