$500,000 at $15,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $21,852; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $500,000 | $15,000 | $509,250 |
| 2 | 66 | $509,250 | $15,300 | $518,648 |
| 3 | 67 | $518,648 | $15,606 | $528,194 |
| 4 | 68 | $528,194 | $15,918 | $537,889 |
| 5 | 69 | $537,889 | $16,236 | $547,735 |
| 6 | 70 | $547,735 | $16,561 | $557,733 |
| 7 | 71 | $557,733 | $16,892 | $567,882 |
| 8 | 72 | $567,882 | $17,230 | $578,185 |
| 9 | 73 | $578,185 | $17,575 | $588,640 |
| 10 | 74 | $588,640 | $17,926 | $599,250 |
| 11 | 75 | $599,250 | $18,285 | $610,013 |
| 12 | 76 | $610,013 | $18,651 | $620,931 |
| 13 | 77 | $620,931 | $19,024 | $632,002 |
| 14 | 78 | $632,002 | $19,404 | $643,228 |
| 15 | 79 | $643,228 | $19,792 | $654,608 |
| 16 | 80 | $654,608 | $20,188 | $666,141 |
| 17 | 81 | $666,141 | $20,592 | $677,826 |
| 18 | 82 | $677,826 | $21,004 | $689,664 |
| 19 | 83 | $689,664 | $21,424 | $701,652 |
| 20 | 84 | $701,652 | $21,852 | $713,790 |
| 21 | 85 | $713,790 | $22,289 | $726,076 |
| 22 | 86 | $726,076 | $22,735 | $738,508 |
| 23 | 87 | $738,508 | $23,190 | $751,084 |
| 24 | 88 | $751,084 | $23,653 | $763,802 |
| 25 | 89 | $763,802 | $24,127 | $776,659 |
| 26 | 90 | $776,659 | $24,609 | $789,653 |
| 27 | 91 | $789,653 | $25,101 | $802,779 |
| 28 | 92 | $802,779 | $25,603 | $816,034 |
| 29 | 93 | $816,034 | $26,115 | $829,415 |
| 30 | 94 | $829,415 | $26,638 | $842,916 |
| 31 | 95 | $842,916 | $27,170 | $856,533 |
| 32 | 96 | $856,533 | $27,714 | $870,260 |
| 33 | 97 | $870,260 | $28,268 | $884,092 |
| 34 | 98 | $884,092 | $28,833 | $898,021 |
| 35 | 99 | $898,021 | $29,410 | $912,042 |
| 36 | 100 | $912,042 | $29,998 | $926,145 |
| 37 | 101 | $926,145 | $30,598 | $940,324 |
| 38 | 102 | $940,324 | $31,210 | $954,570 |
| 39 | 103 | $954,570 | $31,834 | $968,872 |
| 40 | 104 | $968,872 | $32,471 | $983,221 |
The odds $500,000 lasts at $15,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $15,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 100% | 95% |
| 25 years | 98% | 87% |
| 30 years | 93% | 78% |
| 35 years | 88% | 68% |
| 40 years | 83% | 60% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 41 years | 34 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 53 years | 40 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 53 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$15,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 12 years |
| $200,000 | 17 years |
| $250,000 | 23 years |
| $300,000 | 30 years |
| $350,000 | 38 years |
| $400,000 | 50 years |
| $450,000 | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $15,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) from $500,000 at a steady 5.0% return, the portfolio is still standing after 100 years. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $24,593 a year.
Other withdrawals from $500,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 44 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 30 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 23 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 16 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $500,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.