$300,000 at $15,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $21,852; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $300,000 | $15,000 | $299,250 |
| 2 | 66 | $299,250 | $15,300 | $298,148 |
| 3 | 67 | $298,148 | $15,606 | $296,669 |
| 4 | 68 | $296,669 | $15,918 | $294,788 |
| 5 | 69 | $294,788 | $16,236 | $292,479 |
| 6 | 70 | $292,479 | $16,561 | $289,714 |
| 7 | 71 | $289,714 | $16,892 | $286,462 |
| 8 | 72 | $286,462 | $17,230 | $282,694 |
| 9 | 73 | $282,694 | $17,575 | $278,375 |
| 10 | 74 | $278,375 | $17,926 | $273,471 |
| 11 | 75 | $273,471 | $18,285 | $267,945 |
| 12 | 76 | $267,945 | $18,651 | $261,759 |
| 13 | 77 | $261,759 | $19,024 | $254,872 |
| 14 | 78 | $254,872 | $19,404 | $247,242 |
| 15 | 79 | $247,242 | $19,792 | $238,822 |
| 16 | 80 | $238,822 | $20,188 | $229,566 |
| 17 | 81 | $229,566 | $20,592 | $219,423 |
| 18 | 82 | $219,423 | $21,004 | $208,340 |
| 19 | 83 | $208,340 | $21,424 | $196,262 |
| 20 | 84 | $196,262 | $21,852 | $183,130 |
| 21 | 85 | $183,130 | $22,289 | $168,883 |
| 22 | 86 | $168,883 | $22,735 | $153,456 |
| 23 | 87 | $153,456 | $23,190 | $136,779 |
| 24 | 88 | $136,779 | $23,653 | $118,782 |
| 25 | 89 | $118,782 | $24,127 | $99,388 |
| 26 | 90 | $99,388 | $24,609 | $78,518 |
| 27 | 91 | $78,518 | $25,101 | $56,088 |
| 28 | 92 | $56,088 | $25,603 | $32,009 |
| 29 | 93 | $32,009 | $26,115 | $6,188 |
| 30 | 94 | $6,188 | $6,188 | $0 |
The odds $300,000 lasts at $15,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $15,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
$15,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 12 years |
| $200,000 | 17 years |
| $250,000 | 23 years |
| $300,000 | 30 years |
| $350,000 | 38 years |
| $400,000 | 50 years |
| $450,000 | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $15,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) from $300,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $14,756 a year.
Other withdrawals from $300,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | $833 | 60+ years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 44 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 30 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 20 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 15 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $300,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.