$500,000 at $50,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 76. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $72,841; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $500,000 | $50,000 | $472,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $472,500 | $51,000 | $442,575 |
| 3 | 67 | $442,575 | $52,020 | $410,083 |
| 4 | 68 | $410,083 | $53,060 | $374,873 |
| 5 | 69 | $374,873 | $54,122 | $336,789 |
| 6 | 70 | $336,789 | $55,204 | $295,665 |
| 7 | 71 | $295,665 | $56,308 | $251,324 |
| 8 | 72 | $251,324 | $57,434 | $203,585 |
| 9 | 73 | $203,585 | $58,583 | $152,252 |
| 10 | 74 | $152,252 | $59,755 | $97,122 |
| 11 | 75 | $97,122 | $60,950 | $37,981 |
| 12 | 76 | $37,981 | $37,981 | $0 |
The odds $500,000 lasts at $50,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $50,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 4% | 4% |
| 25 years | 1% | 2% |
| 30 years | 0% | 1% |
| 35 years | 0% | 0% |
| 40 years | 0% | 0% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 12 years | 11 years | 10 years |
| 4% | 13 years | 11 years | 11 years |
| 5% | 14 years | 12 years | 11 years |
| 6% | 15 years | 13 years | 12 years |
| 7% | 16 years | 14 years | 13 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $50,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 16 years | 19 years | 21 years |
| $2,000 | 20 years | 24 years | 28 years |
| $2,500 | 25 years | 35 years | 44 years |
Tax on a $50,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $5,302 | 11% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $3,278 | 7% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $50,000 a year ($4,167 a month) from $500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 12, around age 76. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $24,593 a year.
Other withdrawals from $500,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 44 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 30 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 23 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 16 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $500,000 lasts. The same $50,000 a year from $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.25 million or $1.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.