$400,000 at $15,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 114. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $21,852; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $400,000 | $15,000 | $404,250 |
| 2 | 66 | $404,250 | $15,300 | $408,398 |
| 3 | 67 | $408,398 | $15,606 | $412,431 |
| 4 | 68 | $412,431 | $15,918 | $416,339 |
| 5 | 69 | $416,339 | $16,236 | $420,107 |
| 6 | 70 | $420,107 | $16,561 | $423,723 |
| 7 | 71 | $423,723 | $16,892 | $427,172 |
| 8 | 72 | $427,172 | $17,230 | $430,439 |
| 9 | 73 | $430,439 | $17,575 | $433,508 |
| 10 | 74 | $433,508 | $17,926 | $436,360 |
| 11 | 75 | $436,360 | $18,285 | $438,979 |
| 12 | 76 | $438,979 | $18,651 | $441,345 |
| 13 | 77 | $441,345 | $19,024 | $443,437 |
| 14 | 78 | $443,437 | $19,404 | $445,235 |
| 15 | 79 | $445,235 | $19,792 | $446,715 |
| 16 | 80 | $446,715 | $20,188 | $447,853 |
| 17 | 81 | $447,853 | $20,592 | $448,624 |
| 18 | 82 | $448,624 | $21,004 | $449,002 |
| 19 | 83 | $449,002 | $21,424 | $448,957 |
| 20 | 84 | $448,957 | $21,852 | $448,460 |
| 21 | 85 | $448,460 | $22,289 | $447,480 |
| 22 | 86 | $447,480 | $22,735 | $445,982 |
| 23 | 87 | $445,982 | $23,190 | $443,932 |
| 24 | 88 | $443,932 | $23,653 | $441,292 |
| 25 | 89 | $441,292 | $24,127 | $438,024 |
| 26 | 90 | $438,024 | $24,609 | $434,085 |
| 27 | 91 | $434,085 | $25,101 | $429,433 |
| 28 | 92 | $429,433 | $25,603 | $424,022 |
| 29 | 93 | $424,022 | $26,115 | $417,802 |
| 30 | 94 | $417,802 | $26,638 | $410,722 |
| 31 | 95 | $410,722 | $27,170 | $402,729 |
| 32 | 96 | $402,729 | $27,714 | $393,766 |
| 33 | 97 | $393,766 | $28,268 | $383,773 |
| 34 | 98 | $383,773 | $28,833 | $372,686 |
| 35 | 99 | $372,686 | $29,410 | $360,440 |
| 36 | 100 | $360,440 | $29,998 | $346,964 |
| 37 | 101 | $346,964 | $30,598 | $332,184 |
| 38 | 102 | $332,184 | $31,210 | $316,022 |
| 39 | 103 | $316,022 | $31,834 | $298,397 |
| 40 | 104 | $298,397 | $32,471 | $279,222 |
The odds $400,000 lasts at $15,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $15,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 97% | 88% |
| 25 years | 91% | 75% |
| 30 years | 82% | 61% |
| 35 years | 73% | 49% |
| 40 years | 64% | 41% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 51 years | 31 years | 27 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 38 years | 31 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 50 years | 37 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 49 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$15,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 12 years |
| $200,000 | 17 years |
| $250,000 | 23 years |
| $300,000 | 30 years |
| $350,000 | 38 years |
| $400,000 | 50 years |
| $450,000 | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $15,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) from $400,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 50, around age 114. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $19,674 a year.
Other withdrawals from $400,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 60+ years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 50 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 30 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 22 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 17 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $400,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.