$200,000 at $15,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 81. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $21,852; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $200,000 | $15,000 | $194,250 |
| 2 | 66 | $194,250 | $15,300 | $187,898 |
| 3 | 67 | $187,898 | $15,606 | $180,906 |
| 4 | 68 | $180,906 | $15,918 | $173,237 |
| 5 | 69 | $173,237 | $16,236 | $164,851 |
| 6 | 70 | $164,851 | $16,561 | $155,704 |
| 7 | 71 | $155,704 | $16,892 | $145,752 |
| 8 | 72 | $145,752 | $17,230 | $134,948 |
| 9 | 73 | $134,948 | $17,575 | $123,242 |
| 10 | 74 | $123,242 | $17,926 | $110,581 |
| 11 | 75 | $110,581 | $18,285 | $96,911 |
| 12 | 76 | $96,911 | $18,651 | $82,174 |
| 13 | 77 | $82,174 | $19,024 | $66,308 |
| 14 | 78 | $66,308 | $19,404 | $49,249 |
| 15 | 79 | $49,249 | $19,792 | $30,929 |
| 16 | 80 | $30,929 | $20,188 | $11,278 |
| 17 | 81 | $11,278 | $11,278 | $0 |
The odds $200,000 lasts at $15,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $15,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 29% | 22% |
| 25 years | 14% | 11% |
| 30 years | 8% | 6% |
| 35 years | 5% | 4% |
| 40 years | 3% | 3% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 17 years | 15 years | 14 years |
| 4% | 19 years | 16 years | 15 years |
| 5% | 21 years | 17 years | 16 years |
| 6% | 25 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 7% | 31 years | 21 years | 19 years |
$15,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 12 years |
| $200,000 | 17 years |
| $250,000 | 23 years |
| $300,000 | 30 years |
| $350,000 | 38 years |
| $400,000 | 50 years |
| $450,000 | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $15,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) from $200,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 17, around age 81. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $9,837 a year.
Other withdrawals from $200,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 44 years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 30 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 23 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 17 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $200,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.