$500,000 at $25,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $36,420; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $500,000 | $25,000 | $498,750 |
| 2 | 66 | $498,750 | $25,500 | $496,913 |
| 3 | 67 | $496,913 | $26,010 | $494,448 |
| 4 | 68 | $494,448 | $26,530 | $491,313 |
| 5 | 69 | $491,313 | $27,061 | $487,465 |
| 6 | 70 | $487,465 | $27,602 | $482,856 |
| 7 | 71 | $482,856 | $28,154 | $477,437 |
| 8 | 72 | $477,437 | $28,717 | $471,156 |
| 9 | 73 | $471,156 | $29,291 | $463,958 |
| 10 | 74 | $463,958 | $29,877 | $455,785 |
| 11 | 75 | $455,785 | $30,475 | $446,575 |
| 12 | 76 | $446,575 | $31,084 | $436,265 |
| 13 | 77 | $436,265 | $31,706 | $424,787 |
| 14 | 78 | $424,787 | $32,340 | $412,070 |
| 15 | 79 | $412,070 | $32,987 | $398,037 |
| 16 | 80 | $398,037 | $33,647 | $382,610 |
| 17 | 81 | $382,610 | $34,320 | $365,704 |
| 18 | 82 | $365,704 | $35,006 | $347,233 |
| 19 | 83 | $347,233 | $35,706 | $327,103 |
| 20 | 84 | $327,103 | $36,420 | $305,217 |
| 21 | 85 | $305,217 | $37,149 | $281,472 |
| 22 | 86 | $281,472 | $37,892 | $255,759 |
| 23 | 87 | $255,759 | $38,649 | $227,965 |
| 24 | 88 | $227,965 | $39,422 | $197,970 |
| 25 | 89 | $197,970 | $40,211 | $165,647 |
| 26 | 90 | $165,647 | $41,015 | $130,864 |
| 27 | 91 | $130,864 | $41,835 | $93,480 |
| 28 | 92 | $93,480 | $42,672 | $53,348 |
| 29 | 93 | $53,348 | $43,526 | $10,313 |
| 30 | 94 | $10,313 | $10,313 | $0 |
The odds $500,000 lasts at $25,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $25,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
$25,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $250,000 | 12 years |
| $300,000 | 15 years |
| $350,000 | 18 years |
| $400,000 | 22 years |
| $450,000 | 25 years |
| $500,000 | 30 years |
| $600,000 | 40 years |
| $700,000 | 56 years |
| $750,000 | 60+ years |
| $800,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $25,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $790 | 3% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $25,000 a year ($2,083 a month) from $500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $24,593 a year.
Other withdrawals from $500,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 44 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 30 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 23 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 16 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $500,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.