$500,000 at $20,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $29,136; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $500,000 | $20,000 | $504,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $504,000 | $20,400 | $507,780 |
| 3 | 67 | $507,780 | $20,808 | $511,321 |
| 4 | 68 | $511,321 | $21,224 | $514,601 |
| 5 | 69 | $514,601 | $21,649 | $517,600 |
| 6 | 70 | $517,600 | $22,082 | $520,295 |
| 7 | 71 | $520,295 | $22,523 | $522,660 |
| 8 | 72 | $522,660 | $22,974 | $524,670 |
| 9 | 73 | $524,670 | $23,433 | $526,299 |
| 10 | 74 | $526,299 | $23,902 | $527,517 |
| 11 | 75 | $527,517 | $24,380 | $528,294 |
| 12 | 76 | $528,294 | $24,867 | $528,598 |
| 13 | 77 | $528,598 | $25,365 | $528,395 |
| 14 | 78 | $528,395 | $25,872 | $527,649 |
| 15 | 79 | $527,649 | $26,390 | $526,322 |
| 16 | 80 | $526,322 | $26,917 | $524,375 |
| 17 | 81 | $524,375 | $27,456 | $521,765 |
| 18 | 82 | $521,765 | $28,005 | $518,449 |
| 19 | 83 | $518,449 | $28,565 | $514,378 |
| 20 | 84 | $514,378 | $29,136 | $509,504 |
| 21 | 85 | $509,504 | $29,719 | $503,774 |
| 22 | 86 | $503,774 | $30,313 | $497,134 |
| 23 | 87 | $497,134 | $30,920 | $489,525 |
| 24 | 88 | $489,525 | $31,538 | $480,886 |
| 25 | 89 | $480,886 | $32,169 | $471,153 |
| 26 | 90 | $471,153 | $32,812 | $460,258 |
| 27 | 91 | $460,258 | $33,468 | $448,129 |
| 28 | 92 | $448,129 | $34,138 | $434,691 |
| 29 | 93 | $434,691 | $34,820 | $419,864 |
| 30 | 94 | $419,864 | $35,517 | $403,565 |
| 31 | 95 | $403,565 | $36,227 | $385,704 |
| 32 | 96 | $385,704 | $36,952 | $366,190 |
| 33 | 97 | $366,190 | $37,691 | $344,924 |
| 34 | 98 | $344,924 | $38,445 | $321,804 |
| 35 | 99 | $321,804 | $39,214 | $296,720 |
| 36 | 100 | $296,720 | $39,998 | $269,558 |
| 37 | 101 | $269,558 | $40,798 | $240,198 |
| 38 | 102 | $240,198 | $41,614 | $208,514 |
| 39 | 103 | $208,514 | $42,446 | $174,371 |
| 40 | 104 | $174,371 | $43,295 | $137,630 |
The odds $500,000 lasts at $20,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $20,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 25 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$20,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $200,000 | 12 years |
| $250,000 | 16 years |
| $300,000 | 20 years |
| $350,000 | 24 years |
| $400,000 | 30 years |
| $450,000 | 36 years |
| $500,000 | 44 years |
| $600,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $20,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $20,000 a year ($1,667 a month) from $500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $24,593 a year.
Other withdrawals from $500,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 44 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 30 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 23 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 16 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $500,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.