$450,000 at $15,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $21,852; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $450,000 | $15,000 | $456,750 |
| 2 | 66 | $456,750 | $15,300 | $463,523 |
| 3 | 67 | $463,523 | $15,606 | $470,312 |
| 4 | 68 | $470,312 | $15,918 | $477,114 |
| 5 | 69 | $477,114 | $16,236 | $483,921 |
| 6 | 70 | $483,921 | $16,561 | $490,728 |
| 7 | 71 | $490,728 | $16,892 | $497,527 |
| 8 | 72 | $497,527 | $17,230 | $504,312 |
| 9 | 73 | $504,312 | $17,575 | $511,074 |
| 10 | 74 | $511,074 | $17,926 | $517,805 |
| 11 | 75 | $517,805 | $18,285 | $524,496 |
| 12 | 76 | $524,496 | $18,651 | $531,138 |
| 13 | 77 | $531,138 | $19,024 | $537,720 |
| 14 | 78 | $537,720 | $19,404 | $544,231 |
| 15 | 79 | $544,231 | $19,792 | $550,661 |
| 16 | 80 | $550,661 | $20,188 | $556,997 |
| 17 | 81 | $556,997 | $20,592 | $563,225 |
| 18 | 82 | $563,225 | $21,004 | $569,333 |
| 19 | 83 | $569,333 | $21,424 | $575,305 |
| 20 | 84 | $575,305 | $21,852 | $581,125 |
| 21 | 85 | $581,125 | $22,289 | $586,778 |
| 22 | 86 | $586,778 | $22,735 | $592,245 |
| 23 | 87 | $592,245 | $23,190 | $597,508 |
| 24 | 88 | $597,508 | $23,653 | $602,547 |
| 25 | 89 | $602,547 | $24,127 | $607,342 |
| 26 | 90 | $607,342 | $24,609 | $611,869 |
| 27 | 91 | $611,869 | $25,101 | $616,106 |
| 28 | 92 | $616,106 | $25,603 | $620,028 |
| 29 | 93 | $620,028 | $26,115 | $623,608 |
| 30 | 94 | $623,608 | $26,638 | $626,819 |
| 31 | 95 | $626,819 | $27,170 | $629,631 |
| 32 | 96 | $629,631 | $27,714 | $632,013 |
| 33 | 97 | $632,013 | $28,268 | $633,932 |
| 34 | 98 | $633,932 | $28,833 | $635,354 |
| 35 | 99 | $635,354 | $29,410 | $636,241 |
| 36 | 100 | $636,241 | $29,998 | $636,555 |
| 37 | 101 | $636,555 | $30,598 | $636,254 |
| 38 | 102 | $636,254 | $31,210 | $635,296 |
| 39 | 103 | $635,296 | $31,834 | $633,635 |
| 40 | 104 | $633,635 | $32,471 | $631,222 |
The odds $450,000 lasts at $15,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $15,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 92% |
| 25 years | 94% | 82% |
| 30 years | 89% | 70% |
| 35 years | 82% | 60% |
| 40 years | 76% | 51% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 36 years | 30 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 45 years | 36 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 45 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$15,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 12 years |
| $200,000 | 17 years |
| $250,000 | 23 years |
| $300,000 | 30 years |
| $350,000 | 38 years |
| $400,000 | 50 years |
| $450,000 | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $15,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $15,000 a year ($1,250 a month) from $450,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 68, around age 132. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $22,133 a year.
Other withdrawals from $450,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 36 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 25 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 20 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 14 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $450,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.