$4 million at $250,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 86. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $364,203; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $4,000,000 | $250,000 | $3,937,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $3,937,500 | $255,000 | $3,866,625 |
| 3 | 67 | $3,866,625 | $260,100 | $3,786,851 |
| 4 | 68 | $3,786,851 | $265,302 | $3,697,627 |
| 5 | 69 | $3,697,627 | $270,608 | $3,598,370 |
| 6 | 70 | $3,598,370 | $276,020 | $3,488,467 |
| 7 | 71 | $3,488,467 | $281,541 | $3,367,273 |
| 8 | 72 | $3,367,273 | $287,171 | $3,234,106 |
| 9 | 73 | $3,234,106 | $292,915 | $3,088,251 |
| 10 | 74 | $3,088,251 | $298,773 | $2,928,952 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,928,952 | $304,749 | $2,755,413 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,755,413 | $310,844 | $2,566,798 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,566,798 | $317,060 | $2,362,225 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,362,225 | $323,402 | $2,140,764 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,140,764 | $329,870 | $1,901,439 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,901,439 | $336,467 | $1,643,221 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,643,221 | $343,196 | $1,365,025 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,365,025 | $350,060 | $1,065,713 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,065,713 | $357,062 | $744,084 |
| 20 | 84 | $744,084 | $364,203 | $398,876 |
| 21 | 85 | $398,876 | $371,487 | $28,758 |
| 22 | 86 | $28,758 | $28,758 | $0 |
The odds $4 million lasts at $250,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $250,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 57% | 42% |
| 25 years | 36% | 23% |
| 30 years | 21% | 15% |
| 35 years | 15% | 11% |
| 40 years | 12% | 8% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 22 years | 18 years | 16 years |
| 4% | 25 years | 19 years | 18 years |
| 5% | 30 years | 22 years | 19 years |
| 6% | 41 years | 25 years | 22 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 29 years | 24 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $250,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 23 years | 24 years | 24 years |
| $2,000 | 24 years | 24 years | 25 years |
| $2,500 | 24 years | 25 years | 26 years |
Tax on a $250,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $57,176 | 23% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $45,244 | 18% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $250,000 a year ($20,833 a month) from $4,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 22, around age 86. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $196,742 a year.
Other withdrawals from $4 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 60+ years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 50 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 30 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 22 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 17 years |
| $400,000 | $33,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $4 million lasts. The same $250,000 a year from $2.5 million, $3 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.