$4 million at $200,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $291,362; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $4,000,000 | $200,000 | $3,990,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $3,990,000 | $204,000 | $3,975,300 |
| 3 | 67 | $3,975,300 | $208,080 | $3,955,581 |
| 4 | 68 | $3,955,581 | $212,242 | $3,930,506 |
| 5 | 69 | $3,930,506 | $216,486 | $3,899,721 |
| 6 | 70 | $3,899,721 | $220,816 | $3,862,850 |
| 7 | 71 | $3,862,850 | $225,232 | $3,819,498 |
| 8 | 72 | $3,819,498 | $229,737 | $3,769,249 |
| 9 | 73 | $3,769,249 | $234,332 | $3,711,663 |
| 10 | 74 | $3,711,663 | $239,019 | $3,646,277 |
| 11 | 75 | $3,646,277 | $243,799 | $3,572,602 |
| 12 | 76 | $3,572,602 | $248,675 | $3,490,124 |
| 13 | 77 | $3,490,124 | $253,648 | $3,398,299 |
| 14 | 78 | $3,398,299 | $258,721 | $3,296,557 |
| 15 | 79 | $3,296,557 | $263,896 | $3,184,294 |
| 16 | 80 | $3,184,294 | $269,174 | $3,060,876 |
| 17 | 81 | $3,060,876 | $274,557 | $2,925,635 |
| 18 | 82 | $2,925,635 | $280,048 | $2,777,866 |
| 19 | 83 | $2,777,866 | $285,649 | $2,616,828 |
| 20 | 84 | $2,616,828 | $291,362 | $2,441,739 |
| 21 | 85 | $2,441,739 | $297,189 | $2,251,777 |
| 22 | 86 | $2,251,777 | $303,133 | $2,046,076 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,046,076 | $309,196 | $1,823,724 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,823,724 | $315,380 | $1,583,761 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,583,761 | $321,687 | $1,325,177 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,325,177 | $328,121 | $1,046,909 |
| 27 | 91 | $1,046,909 | $334,684 | $747,836 |
| 28 | 92 | $747,836 | $341,377 | $426,782 |
| 29 | 93 | $426,782 | $348,205 | $82,506 |
| 30 | 94 | $82,506 | $82,506 | $0 |
The odds $4 million lasts at $200,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $200,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $200,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 33 years | 34 years | 35 years |
| $2,000 | 35 years | 36 years | 37 years |
| $2,500 | 37 years | 38 years | 39 years |
Tax on a $200,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $41,176 | 21% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $33,090 | 17% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $200,000 a year ($16,667 a month) from $4,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $196,742 a year.
Other withdrawals from $4 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 60+ years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 50 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 30 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 22 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 17 years |
| $400,000 | $33,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $4 million lasts. The same $200,000 a year from $2 million, $2.5 million, $3 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.