$4 million at $150,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 114. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $218,522; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $4,000,000 | $150,000 | $4,042,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $4,042,500 | $153,000 | $4,083,975 |
| 3 | 67 | $4,083,975 | $156,060 | $4,124,311 |
| 4 | 68 | $4,124,311 | $159,181 | $4,163,386 |
| 5 | 69 | $4,163,386 | $162,365 | $4,201,072 |
| 6 | 70 | $4,201,072 | $165,612 | $4,237,233 |
| 7 | 71 | $4,237,233 | $168,924 | $4,271,724 |
| 8 | 72 | $4,271,724 | $172,303 | $4,304,392 |
| 9 | 73 | $4,304,392 | $175,749 | $4,335,076 |
| 10 | 74 | $4,335,076 | $179,264 | $4,363,602 |
| 11 | 75 | $4,363,602 | $182,849 | $4,389,791 |
| 12 | 76 | $4,389,791 | $186,506 | $4,413,449 |
| 13 | 77 | $4,413,449 | $190,236 | $4,434,373 |
| 14 | 78 | $4,434,373 | $194,041 | $4,452,349 |
| 15 | 79 | $4,452,349 | $197,922 | $4,467,149 |
| 16 | 80 | $4,467,149 | $201,880 | $4,478,532 |
| 17 | 81 | $4,478,532 | $205,918 | $4,486,245 |
| 18 | 82 | $4,486,245 | $210,036 | $4,490,019 |
| 19 | 83 | $4,490,019 | $214,237 | $4,489,571 |
| 20 | 84 | $4,489,571 | $218,522 | $4,484,602 |
| 21 | 85 | $4,484,602 | $222,892 | $4,474,795 |
| 22 | 86 | $4,474,795 | $227,350 | $4,459,817 |
| 23 | 87 | $4,459,817 | $231,897 | $4,439,316 |
| 24 | 88 | $4,439,316 | $236,535 | $4,412,921 |
| 25 | 89 | $4,412,921 | $241,266 | $4,380,238 |
| 26 | 90 | $4,380,238 | $246,091 | $4,340,854 |
| 27 | 91 | $4,340,854 | $251,013 | $4,294,334 |
| 28 | 92 | $4,294,334 | $256,033 | $4,240,216 |
| 29 | 93 | $4,240,216 | $261,154 | $4,178,015 |
| 30 | 94 | $4,178,015 | $266,377 | $4,107,220 |
| 31 | 95 | $4,107,220 | $271,704 | $4,027,292 |
| 32 | 96 | $4,027,292 | $277,138 | $3,937,661 |
| 33 | 97 | $3,937,661 | $282,681 | $3,837,729 |
| 34 | 98 | $3,837,729 | $288,335 | $3,726,864 |
| 35 | 99 | $3,726,864 | $294,101 | $3,604,401 |
| 36 | 100 | $3,604,401 | $299,983 | $3,469,638 |
| 37 | 101 | $3,469,638 | $305,983 | $3,321,838 |
| 38 | 102 | $3,321,838 | $312,103 | $3,160,222 |
| 39 | 103 | $3,160,222 | $318,345 | $2,983,971 |
| 40 | 104 | $2,983,971 | $324,712 | $2,792,222 |
The odds $4 million lasts at $150,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $150,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 97% | 88% |
| 25 years | 91% | 75% |
| 30 years | 82% | 61% |
| 35 years | 73% | 49% |
| 40 years | 64% | 41% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 51 years | 31 years | 27 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 38 years | 31 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 50 years | 37 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 49 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $150,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $150,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $29,072 | 19% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $20,770 | 14% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $150,000 a year ($12,500 a month) from $4,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 50, around age 114. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $196,742 a year.
Other withdrawals from $4 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 60+ years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 50 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 30 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 22 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 17 years |
| $400,000 | $33,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $4 million lasts. The same $150,000 a year from $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $2.5 million, $3 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.