$3 million at $150,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $218,522; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $3,000,000 | $150,000 | $2,992,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,992,500 | $153,000 | $2,981,475 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,981,475 | $156,060 | $2,966,686 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,966,686 | $159,181 | $2,947,880 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,947,880 | $162,365 | $2,924,791 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,924,791 | $165,612 | $2,897,138 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,897,138 | $168,924 | $2,864,624 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,864,624 | $172,303 | $2,826,937 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,826,937 | $175,749 | $2,783,747 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,783,747 | $179,264 | $2,734,708 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,734,708 | $182,849 | $2,679,452 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,679,452 | $186,506 | $2,617,593 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,617,593 | $190,236 | $2,548,724 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,548,724 | $194,041 | $2,472,417 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,472,417 | $197,922 | $2,388,220 |
| 16 | 80 | $2,388,220 | $201,880 | $2,295,657 |
| 17 | 81 | $2,295,657 | $205,918 | $2,194,226 |
| 18 | 82 | $2,194,226 | $210,036 | $2,083,400 |
| 19 | 83 | $2,083,400 | $214,237 | $1,962,621 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,962,621 | $218,522 | $1,831,304 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,831,304 | $222,892 | $1,688,832 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,688,832 | $227,350 | $1,534,557 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,534,557 | $231,897 | $1,367,793 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,367,793 | $236,535 | $1,187,821 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,187,821 | $241,266 | $993,883 |
| 26 | 90 | $993,883 | $246,091 | $785,182 |
| 27 | 91 | $785,182 | $251,013 | $560,877 |
| 28 | 92 | $560,877 | $256,033 | $320,087 |
| 29 | 93 | $320,087 | $261,154 | $61,880 |
| 30 | 94 | $61,880 | $61,880 | $0 |
The odds $3 million lasts at $150,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $150,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $150,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 35 years | 36 years | 37 years |
| $2,000 | 37 years | 39 years | 40 years |
| $2,500 | 40 years | 42 years | 44 years |
Tax on a $150,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $29,072 | 19% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $20,770 | 14% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $150,000 a year ($12,500 a month) from $3,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $147,556 a year.
Other withdrawals from $3 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 60+ years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 44 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 30 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 20 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 15 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $3 million lasts. The same $150,000 a year from $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $2.5 million, $4 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.