$3 million at $200,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 84. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $291,362; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $3,000,000 | $200,000 | $2,940,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,940,000 | $204,000 | $2,872,800 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,872,800 | $208,080 | $2,797,956 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,797,956 | $212,242 | $2,715,000 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,715,000 | $216,486 | $2,623,439 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,623,439 | $220,816 | $2,522,754 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,522,754 | $225,232 | $2,412,398 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,412,398 | $229,737 | $2,291,794 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,291,794 | $234,332 | $2,160,335 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,160,335 | $239,019 | $2,017,382 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,017,382 | $243,799 | $1,862,263 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,862,263 | $248,675 | $1,694,267 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,694,267 | $253,648 | $1,512,650 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,512,650 | $258,721 | $1,316,625 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,316,625 | $263,896 | $1,105,366 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,105,366 | $269,174 | $878,002 |
| 17 | 81 | $878,002 | $274,557 | $633,617 |
| 18 | 82 | $633,617 | $280,048 | $371,247 |
| 19 | 83 | $371,247 | $285,649 | $89,877 |
| 20 | 84 | $89,877 | $89,877 | $0 |
The odds $3 million lasts at $200,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $200,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 49% | 33% |
| 25 years | 26% | 18% |
| 30 years | 16% | 11% |
| 35 years | 12% | 8% |
| 40 years | 8% | 5% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 20 years | 17 years | 15 years |
| 4% | 22 years | 18 years | 17 years |
| 5% | 26 years | 20 years | 18 years |
| 6% | 33 years | 22 years | 20 years |
| 7% | 59 years | 26 years | 22 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $200,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 22 years | 22 years | 22 years |
| $2,000 | 22 years | 23 years | 24 years |
| $2,500 | 23 years | 24 years | 25 years |
Tax on a $200,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $41,176 | 21% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $33,090 | 17% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $200,000 a year ($16,667 a month) from $3,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 20, around age 84. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $147,556 a year.
Other withdrawals from $3 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 60+ years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 44 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 30 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 20 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 15 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $3 million lasts. The same $200,000 a year from $2 million, $2.5 million, $4 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.