$3 million at $100,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $145,681; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $3,000,000 | $100,000 | $3,045,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $3,045,000 | $102,000 | $3,090,150 |
| 3 | 67 | $3,090,150 | $104,040 | $3,135,416 |
| 4 | 68 | $3,135,416 | $106,121 | $3,180,759 |
| 5 | 69 | $3,180,759 | $108,243 | $3,226,142 |
| 6 | 70 | $3,226,142 | $110,408 | $3,271,521 |
| 7 | 71 | $3,271,521 | $112,616 | $3,316,850 |
| 8 | 72 | $3,316,850 | $114,869 | $3,362,080 |
| 9 | 73 | $3,362,080 | $117,166 | $3,407,160 |
| 10 | 74 | $3,407,160 | $119,509 | $3,452,033 |
| 11 | 75 | $3,452,033 | $121,899 | $3,496,640 |
| 12 | 76 | $3,496,640 | $124,337 | $3,540,918 |
| 13 | 77 | $3,540,918 | $126,824 | $3,584,799 |
| 14 | 78 | $3,584,799 | $129,361 | $3,628,210 |
| 15 | 79 | $3,628,210 | $131,948 | $3,671,075 |
| 16 | 80 | $3,671,075 | $134,587 | $3,713,313 |
| 17 | 81 | $3,713,313 | $137,279 | $3,754,836 |
| 18 | 82 | $3,754,836 | $140,024 | $3,795,552 |
| 19 | 83 | $3,795,552 | $142,825 | $3,835,364 |
| 20 | 84 | $3,835,364 | $145,681 | $3,874,167 |
| 21 | 85 | $3,874,167 | $148,595 | $3,911,851 |
| 22 | 86 | $3,911,851 | $151,567 | $3,948,298 |
| 23 | 87 | $3,948,298 | $154,598 | $3,983,386 |
| 24 | 88 | $3,983,386 | $157,690 | $4,016,980 |
| 25 | 89 | $4,016,980 | $160,844 | $4,048,944 |
| 26 | 90 | $4,048,944 | $164,061 | $4,079,127 |
| 27 | 91 | $4,079,127 | $167,342 | $4,107,375 |
| 28 | 92 | $4,107,375 | $170,689 | $4,133,520 |
| 29 | 93 | $4,133,520 | $174,102 | $4,157,389 |
| 30 | 94 | $4,157,389 | $177,584 | $4,178,794 |
| 31 | 95 | $4,178,794 | $181,136 | $4,197,541 |
| 32 | 96 | $4,197,541 | $184,759 | $4,213,421 |
| 33 | 97 | $4,213,421 | $188,454 | $4,226,216 |
| 34 | 98 | $4,226,216 | $192,223 | $4,235,692 |
| 35 | 99 | $4,235,692 | $196,068 | $4,241,606 |
| 36 | 100 | $4,241,606 | $199,989 | $4,243,698 |
| 37 | 101 | $4,243,698 | $203,989 | $4,241,694 |
| 38 | 102 | $4,241,694 | $208,069 | $4,235,307 |
| 39 | 103 | $4,235,307 | $212,230 | $4,224,231 |
| 40 | 104 | $4,224,231 | $216,474 | $4,208,144 |
The odds $3 million lasts at $100,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $100,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 92% |
| 25 years | 94% | 82% |
| 30 years | 89% | 70% |
| 35 years | 82% | 60% |
| 40 years | 76% | 51% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 36 years | 31 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 45 years | 36 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 45 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $100,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $100,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $16,486 | 16% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $10,088 | 10% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $100,000 a year ($8,333 a month) from $3,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 68, around age 132. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $147,556 a year.
Other withdrawals from $3 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 60+ years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 44 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 30 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 20 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 15 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $3 million lasts. The same $100,000 a year from $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million or $2.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.