How long $200,000 lasts at each withdrawal
Each row is a first-year withdrawal that then rises 2% a year. The return is what the money left in the account earns; each withdrawal opens its own page with the year-by-year balance.
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Share of balance | At 3% | At 5% | At 7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 4.0% | 29 years | 44 years | 60+ years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 5.0% | 23 years | 30 years | 57 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 6.0% | 19 years | 23 years | 32 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 7.5% | 15 years | 17 years | 21 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 10.0% | 11 years | 12 years | 14 years |
The odds $200,000 lasts 30 years
A steady return hides the order of good and bad years. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which each withdrawal still has money left after 30 years. Sixty-five to 95 is 30 years.
| Withdrawal a year | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | 77% | 53% |
| $10,000 | 49% | 33% |
| $12,000 | 26% | 17% |
| $15,000 | 8% | 6% |
| $20,000 | 0% | 1% |
How much $200,000 pays for a set number of years
The other way round: the largest first-year withdrawal, raised 2% a year, that spends $200,000 to zero in exactly that many years at a steady 5% return.
| Years | First year | A month | Share of balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | $12,988 | $1,082 | 6.5% |
| 25 | $11,084 | $924 | 5.5% |
| 30 | $9,837 | $820 | 4.9% |
| 35 | $8,964 | $747 | 4.5% |
| 40 | $8,326 | $694 | 4.2% |
How long $200,000 lasts with Social Security
Say you spend $40,000 a year in total and claim Social Security at 67. Until then the portfolio pays all of it; after that, only what the benefit does not cover. Retiring later shortens the stretch the portfolio carries alone.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 6 years | 9 years | 11 years |
| $2,000 | 6 years | 11 years | 16 years |
| $2,500 | 7 years | 18 years | 30 years |
Estimate your own benefit on Social Security by salary.
The calculator, set to $200,000
Set to $16,000 a year from 65. Change the withdrawal, enter it monthly, add Social Security or a pension, or set your own return and inflation.
Taking $16,000 a year ($1,333 a month) from $200,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 16, around age 80. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $9,837 a year.
How long other balances last
| Balance | Withdrawal | Lasts at 5% |
|---|---|---|
| How long $100,000 lasts | $8,000 | 16 years |
| How long $150,000 lasts | $12,000 | 16 years |
| $200,000 | $16,000 | 16 years |
| How long $250,000 lasts | $20,000 | 16 years |
| How long $300,000 lasts | $22,000 | 18 years |
| How long $350,000 lasts | $25,000 | 18 years |
| How long $400,000 lasts | $27,000 | 19 years |
| How long $450,000 lasts | $30,000 | 20 years |
| How long $500,000 lasts | $32,000 | 21 years |
| How long $600,000 lasts | $35,000 | 24 years |
| How long $700,000 lasts | $38,000 | 26 years |
| How long $750,000 lasts | $40,000 | 27 years |
| How long $800,000 lasts | $42,000 | 28 years |
| How long $900,000 lasts | $46,000 | 29 years |
| How long $1 million lasts | $50,000 | 30 years |
| How long $1.25 million lasts | $55,000 | 37 years |
| How long $1.5 million lasts | $60,000 | 44 years |
| How long $1.75 million lasts | $70,000 | 44 years |
| How long $2 million lasts | $80,000 | 44 years |
| How long $2.5 million lasts | $90,000 | 55 years |
| How long $3 million lasts | $100,000 | 60+ years |
| How long $4 million lasts | $120,000 | 60+ years |
| How long $5 million lasts | $150,000 | 60+ years |
- Is $200,000 enough to retire? Income at 4% and the odds by retirement age.
- RMD on $200,000: what the IRS requires from 73 or 75 if it is in a traditional IRA or 401(k).
- How long savings last, every balance
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.