How long will $200,000 last at $8,000 a year?

44 years at a steady 5% return, with the $8,000 ($667 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About 44 years at a steady 5% return, with the $8,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at age 103, at 65 at age 108. That is 4% of $200,000 in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 29 years.

Updated November 11, 2026 · By Berkay Kolay

$200,000 at $8,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $11,654; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$200,000, $8,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
Year	Age	Balance at start	Withdrawal	Balance at end
1	65	$200,000	$8,000	$201,600
2	66	$201,600	$8,160	$203,112
3	67	$203,112	$8,323	$204,528
4	68	$204,528	$8,490	$205,841
5	69	$205,841	$8,659	$207,040
6	70	$207,040	$8,833	$208,118
7	71	$208,118	$9,009	$209,064
8	72	$209,064	$9,189	$209,868
9	73	$209,868	$9,373	$210,520
10	74	$210,520	$9,561	$211,007
11	75	$211,007	$9,752	$211,318
12	76	$211,318	$9,947	$211,439
13	77	$211,439	$10,146	$211,358
14	78	$211,358	$10,349	$211,060
15	79	$211,060	$10,556	$210,529
16	80	$210,529	$10,767	$209,750
17	81	$209,750	$10,982	$208,706
18	82	$208,706	$11,202	$207,379
19	83	$207,379	$11,426	$205,751
20	84	$205,751	$11,654	$203,801
21	85	$203,801	$11,888	$201,510
22	86	$201,510	$12,125	$198,853
23	87	$198,853	$12,368	$195,810
24	88	$195,810	$12,615	$192,354
25	89	$192,354	$12,867	$188,461
26	90	$188,461	$13,125	$184,103
27	91	$184,103	$13,387	$179,252
28	92	$179,252	$13,655	$173,876
29	93	$173,876	$13,928	$167,946
30	94	$167,946	$14,207	$161,426
31	95	$161,426	$14,491	$154,282
32	96	$154,282	$14,781	$146,476
33	97	$146,476	$15,076	$137,970
34	98	$137,970	$15,378	$128,721
35	99	$128,721	$15,685	$118,688
36	100	$118,688	$15,999	$107,823
37	101	$107,823	$16,319	$96,079
38	102	$96,079	$16,645	$83,405
39	103	$83,405	$16,978	$69,748
40	104	$69,748	$17,318	$55,052

The odds $200,000 lasts at $8,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $8,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $8,000 a year from $200,000 lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
For	Trinity-style (7%, 12%)	Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years	95%	85%
25 years	87%	68%
30 years	77%	53%
35 years	66%	42%
40 years	58%	36%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $8,000 a year from $200,000 lasts, by return and yearly raise
Return	No raise	2% raise	3% raise
3%	45 years	29 years	25 years
4%	60+ years	34 years	29 years
5%	60+ years	44 years	34 years
6%	60+ years	60+ years	43 years
7%	60+ years	60+ years	60+ years

$8,000 a year from other balances

Years $8,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
Balance	Lasts
$100,000	16 years
$150,000	27 years
$200,000	44 years
$250,000	60+ years

Tax on an $8,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax an $8,000 withdrawal adds at 65
Household	Federal tax	Share of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security	$0	0%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security	$0	0%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your age

Savings or portfolio ($)

Enter spending and income

Spending a year (today's $)

Social Security or pension a year (today's $)

Tax rate on withdrawals (%)

Annual return (%)

Inflation (%)

Years it needs to last

Your money lasts44 yearsRuns out around age 108

Most you can withdraw for 30 years$9,837 a year$820 a month, rising with inflation

Taken from the portfolio$8,000 a year4.0% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $8,000 a year ($667 a month) from $200,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $9,837 a year.

Run 1,000 market paths

Success rate53%1000 seeded paths

10th percentile ending$0

Median ending$16,666

90th percentile ending$634,994

Other withdrawals from $200,000

Years $200,000 lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a year	A month	Lasts
$8,000	$667	44 years
$10,000	$833	30 years
$12,000	$1,000	23 years
$15,000	$1,250	17 years
$20,000	$1,667	12 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $200,000 lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $200,000 last if I withdraw $8,000 a year?

44 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $8,000. The first withdrawal is 4% of the balance.

How long will $200,000 last at $667 a month?

$667 a month is $8,000 a year, so the same 44 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.

How much could $200,000 pay for 30 years instead?

About $9,837 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $12,988 lasts 20 years and $8,326 lasts 40.

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