$200,000 at $12,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 87. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $17,482; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $200,000 | $12,000 | $197,400 |
| 2 | 66 | $197,400 | $12,240 | $194,418 |
| 3 | 67 | $194,418 | $12,485 | $191,030 |
| 4 | 68 | $191,030 | $12,734 | $187,210 |
| 5 | 69 | $187,210 | $12,989 | $182,932 |
| 6 | 70 | $182,932 | $13,249 | $178,167 |
| 7 | 71 | $178,167 | $13,514 | $172,886 |
| 8 | 72 | $172,886 | $13,784 | $167,057 |
| 9 | 73 | $167,057 | $14,060 | $160,647 |
| 10 | 74 | $160,647 | $14,341 | $153,621 |
| 11 | 75 | $153,621 | $14,628 | $145,943 |
| 12 | 76 | $145,943 | $14,920 | $137,573 |
| 13 | 77 | $137,573 | $15,219 | $128,472 |
| 14 | 78 | $128,472 | $15,523 | $118,596 |
| 15 | 79 | $118,596 | $15,834 | $107,901 |
| 16 | 80 | $107,901 | $16,150 | $96,338 |
| 17 | 81 | $96,338 | $16,473 | $83,857 |
| 18 | 82 | $83,857 | $16,803 | $70,407 |
| 19 | 83 | $70,407 | $17,139 | $55,932 |
| 20 | 84 | $55,932 | $17,482 | $40,372 |
| 21 | 85 | $40,372 | $17,831 | $23,668 |
| 22 | 86 | $23,668 | $18,188 | $5,754 |
| 23 | 87 | $5,754 | $5,754 | $0 |
The odds $200,000 lasts at $12,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $12,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 64% | 47% |
| 25 years | 41% | 27% |
| 30 years | 26% | 17% |
| 35 years | 18% | 13% |
| 40 years | 14% | 10% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 23 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 4% | 27 years | 20 years | 19 years |
| 5% | 33 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 6% | 50 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 32 years | 26 years |
$12,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 16 years |
| $200,000 | 23 years |
| $250,000 | 32 years |
| $300,000 | 44 years |
| $350,000 | 60+ years |
| $400,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $12,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $12,000 a year ($1,000 a month) from $200,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 23, around age 87. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $9,837 a year.
Other withdrawals from $200,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 44 years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 30 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 23 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 17 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $200,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.