$2.5 million at $150,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 87. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $218,522; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,500,000 | $150,000 | $2,467,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,467,500 | $153,000 | $2,430,225 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,430,225 | $156,060 | $2,387,873 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,387,873 | $159,181 | $2,340,127 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,340,127 | $162,365 | $2,286,650 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,286,650 | $165,612 | $2,227,090 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,227,090 | $168,924 | $2,161,074 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,161,074 | $172,303 | $2,088,209 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,088,209 | $175,749 | $2,008,083 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,008,083 | $179,264 | $1,920,260 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,920,260 | $182,849 | $1,824,282 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,824,282 | $186,506 | $1,719,665 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,719,665 | $190,236 | $1,605,900 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,605,900 | $194,041 | $1,482,452 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,482,452 | $197,922 | $1,348,756 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,348,756 | $201,880 | $1,204,220 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,204,220 | $205,918 | $1,048,217 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,048,217 | $210,036 | $880,090 |
| 19 | 83 | $880,090 | $214,237 | $699,146 |
| 20 | 84 | $699,146 | $218,522 | $504,655 |
| 21 | 85 | $504,655 | $222,892 | $295,851 |
| 22 | 86 | $295,851 | $227,350 | $71,926 |
| 23 | 87 | $71,926 | $71,926 | $0 |
The odds $2.5 million lasts at $150,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $150,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 64% | 47% |
| 25 years | 41% | 27% |
| 30 years | 26% | 17% |
| 35 years | 18% | 13% |
| 40 years | 14% | 10% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 23 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 4% | 27 years | 20 years | 19 years |
| 5% | 33 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 6% | 50 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 32 years | 26 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $150,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 26 years | 27 years | 27 years |
| $2,000 | 27 years | 29 years | 29 years |
| $2,500 | 29 years | 31 years | 32 years |
Tax on a $150,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $29,072 | 19% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $20,770 | 14% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $150,000 a year ($12,500 a month) from $2,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 23, around age 87. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $122,964 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 60+ years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 44 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 32 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 23 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 16 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2.5 million lasts. The same $150,000 a year from $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million, $3 million, $4 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.