$2.5 million at $200,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 80. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $291,362; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,500,000 | $200,000 | $2,415,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,415,000 | $204,000 | $2,321,550 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,321,550 | $208,080 | $2,219,144 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,219,144 | $212,242 | $2,107,247 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,107,247 | $216,486 | $1,985,299 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,985,299 | $220,816 | $1,852,707 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,852,707 | $225,232 | $1,708,848 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,708,848 | $229,737 | $1,553,066 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,553,066 | $234,332 | $1,384,671 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,384,671 | $239,019 | $1,202,935 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,202,935 | $243,799 | $1,007,093 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,007,093 | $248,675 | $796,339 |
| 13 | 77 | $796,339 | $253,648 | $569,825 |
| 14 | 78 | $569,825 | $258,721 | $326,659 |
| 15 | 79 | $326,659 | $263,896 | $65,902 |
| 16 | 80 | $65,902 | $65,902 | $0 |
The odds $2.5 million lasts at $200,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $200,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 21% | 16% |
| 25 years | 10% | 8% |
| 30 years | 4% | 4% |
| 35 years | 3% | 3% |
| 40 years | 2% | 2% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 16 years | 14 years | 13 years |
| 4% | 17 years | 15 years | 14 years |
| 5% | 19 years | 16 years | 15 years |
| 6% | 22 years | 17 years | 16 years |
| 7% | 26 years | 19 years | 17 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $200,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 17 years | 17 years | 18 years |
| $2,000 | 17 years | 18 years | 18 years |
| $2,500 | 18 years | 19 years | 19 years |
Tax on a $200,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $41,176 | 21% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $33,090 | 17% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $200,000 a year ($16,667 a month) from $2,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 16, around age 80. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $122,964 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 60+ years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 44 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 32 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 23 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 16 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2.5 million lasts. The same $200,000 a year from $2 million, $3 million, $4 million or $5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.