$2.5 million at $100,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $145,681; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $2,500,000 | $100,000 | $2,520,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $2,520,000 | $102,000 | $2,538,900 |
| 3 | 67 | $2,538,900 | $104,040 | $2,556,603 |
| 4 | 68 | $2,556,603 | $106,121 | $2,573,006 |
| 5 | 69 | $2,573,006 | $108,243 | $2,588,001 |
| 6 | 70 | $2,588,001 | $110,408 | $2,601,473 |
| 7 | 71 | $2,601,473 | $112,616 | $2,613,299 |
| 8 | 72 | $2,613,299 | $114,869 | $2,623,352 |
| 9 | 73 | $2,623,352 | $117,166 | $2,631,496 |
| 10 | 74 | $2,631,496 | $119,509 | $2,637,586 |
| 11 | 75 | $2,637,586 | $121,899 | $2,641,471 |
| 12 | 76 | $2,641,471 | $124,337 | $2,642,990 |
| 13 | 77 | $2,642,990 | $126,824 | $2,641,974 |
| 14 | 78 | $2,641,974 | $129,361 | $2,638,244 |
| 15 | 79 | $2,638,244 | $131,948 | $2,631,611 |
| 16 | 80 | $2,631,611 | $134,587 | $2,621,875 |
| 17 | 81 | $2,621,875 | $137,279 | $2,608,827 |
| 18 | 82 | $2,608,827 | $140,024 | $2,592,243 |
| 19 | 83 | $2,592,243 | $142,825 | $2,571,889 |
| 20 | 84 | $2,571,889 | $145,681 | $2,547,518 |
| 21 | 85 | $2,547,518 | $148,595 | $2,518,870 |
| 22 | 86 | $2,518,870 | $151,567 | $2,485,668 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,485,668 | $154,598 | $2,447,624 |
| 24 | 88 | $2,447,624 | $157,690 | $2,404,430 |
| 25 | 89 | $2,404,430 | $160,844 | $2,355,766 |
| 26 | 90 | $2,355,766 | $164,061 | $2,301,291 |
| 27 | 91 | $2,301,291 | $167,342 | $2,240,646 |
| 28 | 92 | $2,240,646 | $170,689 | $2,173,456 |
| 29 | 93 | $2,173,456 | $174,102 | $2,099,321 |
| 30 | 94 | $2,099,321 | $177,584 | $2,017,823 |
| 31 | 95 | $2,017,823 | $181,136 | $1,928,521 |
| 32 | 96 | $1,928,521 | $184,759 | $1,830,951 |
| 33 | 97 | $1,830,951 | $188,454 | $1,724,621 |
| 34 | 98 | $1,724,621 | $192,223 | $1,609,018 |
| 35 | 99 | $1,609,018 | $196,068 | $1,483,598 |
| 36 | 100 | $1,483,598 | $199,989 | $1,347,790 |
| 37 | 101 | $1,347,790 | $203,989 | $1,200,991 |
| 38 | 102 | $1,200,991 | $208,069 | $1,042,568 |
| 39 | 103 | $1,042,568 | $212,230 | $871,856 |
| 40 | 104 | $871,856 | $216,474 | $688,150 |
The odds $2.5 million lasts at $100,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $100,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 25 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $100,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $100,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $16,486 | 16% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $10,088 | 10% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $100,000 a year ($8,333 a month) from $2,500,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $122,964 a year.
Other withdrawals from $2.5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 60+ years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 44 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 32 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 23 years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 16 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $2.5 million lasts. The same $100,000 a year from $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million or $3 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.