$1.25 million at $50,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $72,841; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,250,000 | $50,000 | $1,260,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,260,000 | $51,000 | $1,269,450 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,269,450 | $52,020 | $1,278,302 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,278,302 | $53,060 | $1,286,503 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,286,503 | $54,122 | $1,294,001 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,294,001 | $55,204 | $1,300,736 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,300,736 | $56,308 | $1,306,650 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,306,650 | $57,434 | $1,311,676 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,311,676 | $58,583 | $1,315,748 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,315,748 | $59,755 | $1,318,793 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,318,793 | $60,950 | $1,320,735 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,320,735 | $62,169 | $1,321,495 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,321,495 | $63,412 | $1,320,987 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,320,987 | $64,680 | $1,319,122 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,319,122 | $65,974 | $1,315,806 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,315,806 | $67,293 | $1,310,938 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,310,938 | $68,639 | $1,304,413 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,304,413 | $70,012 | $1,296,121 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,296,121 | $71,412 | $1,285,944 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,285,944 | $72,841 | $1,273,759 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,273,759 | $74,297 | $1,259,435 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,259,435 | $75,783 | $1,242,834 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,242,834 | $77,299 | $1,223,812 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,223,812 | $78,845 | $1,202,215 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,202,215 | $80,422 | $1,177,883 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,177,883 | $82,030 | $1,150,645 |
| 27 | 91 | $1,150,645 | $83,671 | $1,120,323 |
| 28 | 92 | $1,120,323 | $85,344 | $1,086,728 |
| 29 | 93 | $1,086,728 | $87,051 | $1,049,660 |
| 30 | 94 | $1,049,660 | $88,792 | $1,008,912 |
| 31 | 95 | $1,008,912 | $90,568 | $964,261 |
| 32 | 96 | $964,261 | $92,379 | $915,475 |
| 33 | 97 | $915,475 | $94,227 | $862,311 |
| 34 | 98 | $862,311 | $96,112 | $804,509 |
| 35 | 99 | $804,509 | $98,034 | $741,799 |
| 36 | 100 | $741,799 | $99,994 | $673,895 |
| 37 | 101 | $673,895 | $101,994 | $600,495 |
| 38 | 102 | $600,495 | $104,034 | $521,284 |
| 39 | 103 | $521,284 | $106,115 | $435,928 |
| 40 | 104 | $435,928 | $108,237 | $344,075 |
The odds $1.25 million lasts at $50,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $50,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 25 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $50,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $50,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $5,302 | 11% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $3,278 | 7% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $50,000 a year ($4,167 a month) from $1,250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $61,482 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.25 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 44 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 32 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 25 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 21 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 16 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 13 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.25 million lasts. The same $50,000 a year from $500,000, $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million or $1.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.