$1 million at $50,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $72,841; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,000,000 | $50,000 | $997,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $997,500 | $51,000 | $993,825 |
| 3 | 67 | $993,825 | $52,020 | $988,895 |
| 4 | 68 | $988,895 | $53,060 | $982,627 |
| 5 | 69 | $982,627 | $54,122 | $974,930 |
| 6 | 70 | $974,930 | $55,204 | $965,713 |
| 7 | 71 | $965,713 | $56,308 | $954,875 |
| 8 | 72 | $954,875 | $57,434 | $942,312 |
| 9 | 73 | $942,312 | $58,583 | $927,916 |
| 10 | 74 | $927,916 | $59,755 | $911,569 |
| 11 | 75 | $911,569 | $60,950 | $893,151 |
| 12 | 76 | $893,151 | $62,169 | $872,531 |
| 13 | 77 | $872,531 | $63,412 | $849,575 |
| 14 | 78 | $849,575 | $64,680 | $824,139 |
| 15 | 79 | $824,139 | $65,974 | $796,073 |
| 16 | 80 | $796,073 | $67,293 | $765,219 |
| 17 | 81 | $765,219 | $68,639 | $731,409 |
| 18 | 82 | $731,409 | $70,012 | $694,467 |
| 19 | 83 | $694,467 | $71,412 | $654,207 |
| 20 | 84 | $654,207 | $72,841 | $610,435 |
| 21 | 85 | $610,435 | $74,297 | $562,944 |
| 22 | 86 | $562,944 | $75,783 | $511,519 |
| 23 | 87 | $511,519 | $77,299 | $455,931 |
| 24 | 88 | $455,931 | $78,845 | $395,940 |
| 25 | 89 | $395,940 | $80,422 | $331,294 |
| 26 | 90 | $331,294 | $82,030 | $261,727 |
| 27 | 91 | $261,727 | $83,671 | $186,959 |
| 28 | 92 | $186,959 | $85,344 | $106,696 |
| 29 | 93 | $106,696 | $87,051 | $20,627 |
| 30 | 94 | $20,627 | $20,627 | $0 |
The odds $1 million lasts at $50,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $50,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $50,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 59 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $50,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $5,302 | 11% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $3,278 | 7% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $50,000 a year ($4,167 a month) from $1,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $49,185 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 60+ years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 44 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 30 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 23 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 19 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 16 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1 million lasts. The same $50,000 a year from $500,000, $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1.25 million or $1.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.