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How long will $1.75 million last?

$1.75 million lasts 44 years withdrawing $70,000 a year, raised 2% a year for inflation, at a steady 5% return. Below: every withdrawal from $60,000 to $150,000, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, the most it pays for a set number of years, Social Security, and a calculator set to $1.75 million.

Short answer: About 44 years withdrawing $70,000 a year ($5,833 a month), raised 2% a year for inflation, at a steady 5% return: from 65, to age 108. At the 4% rule’s $70,000 it lasts 44 years.

How long $1.75 million lasts at each withdrawal

Each row is a first-year withdrawal that then rises 2% a year. The return is what the money left in the account earns; each withdrawal opens its own page with the year-by-year balance.

Years $1.75 million lasts by yearly withdrawal and return
Withdrawal a yearA monthShare of balanceAt 3%At 5%At 7%
$60,000$5,0003.4%35 years60+ years60+ years
$70,000$5,8334.0%29 years44 years60+ years
$80,000$6,6674.6%25 years34 years60+ years
$100,000$8,3335.7%20 years24 years36 years
$120,000$10,0006.9%16 years19 years24 years
$150,000$12,5008.6%13 years14 years17 years

The odds $1.75 million lasts 30 years

A steady return hides the order of good and bad years. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which each withdrawal still has money left after 30 years. Sixty-five to 95 is 30 years.

Chance $1.75 million lasts 30 years, 1,000 simulated markets
Withdrawal a yearTrinity-style (7%, 12%)Cautious (5%, 15%)
$60,00088%68%
$70,00077%53%
$80,00062%41%
$100,00032%21%
$120,00014%10%
$150,0002%2%

How much $1.75 million pays for a set number of years

The other way round: the largest first-year withdrawal, raised 2% a year, that spends $1.75 million to zero in exactly that many years at a steady 5% return.

Most $1.75 million can pay for a fixed number of years
YearsFirst yearA monthShare of balance
20$113,646$9,4716.5%
25$96,989$8,0825.5%
30$86,075$7,1734.9%
35$78,439$6,5374.5%
40$72,848$6,0714.2%

How long $1.75 million lasts with Social Security

Say you spend $94,000 a year in total and claim Social Security at 67. Until then the portfolio pays all of it; after that, only what the benefit does not cover. Retiring later shortens the stretch the portfolio carries alone.

Years $1.75 million lasts spending $94,000 a year, Social Security from 67
Benefit a monthRetire at 62Retire at 65Retire at 67
$1,50034 years36 years38 years
$2,00039 years41 years44 years
$2,50044 years49 years53 years

Estimate your own benefit on Social Security by salary.

The calculator, set to $1.75 million

Set to $70,000 a year from 65. Change the withdrawal, enter it monthly, add Social Security or a pension, or set your own return and inflation.

Your money lasts44 yearsRuns out around age 108
Most you can withdraw for 30 years$86,075 a year$7,173 a month, rising with inflation
Taken from the portfolio$70,000 a year4.0% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $70,000 a year ($5,833 a month) from $1,750,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $86,075 a year.

Success rate53%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$145,828
90th percentile ending$5,556,195

How long other balances last

Each balance at the withdrawal its page leads with
BalanceWithdrawalLasts at 5%
How long $100,000 lasts$8,00016 years
How long $150,000 lasts$12,00016 years
How long $200,000 lasts$16,00016 years
How long $250,000 lasts$20,00016 years
How long $300,000 lasts$22,00018 years
How long $350,000 lasts$25,00018 years
How long $400,000 lasts$27,00019 years
How long $450,000 lasts$30,00020 years
How long $500,000 lasts$32,00021 years
How long $600,000 lasts$35,00024 years
How long $700,000 lasts$38,00026 years
How long $750,000 lasts$40,00027 years
How long $800,000 lasts$42,00028 years
How long $900,000 lasts$46,00029 years
How long $1 million lasts$50,00030 years
How long $1.25 million lasts$55,00037 years
How long $1.5 million lasts$60,00044 years
$1.75 million$70,00044 years
How long $2 million lasts$80,00044 years
How long $2.5 million lasts$90,00055 years
How long $3 million lasts$100,00060+ years
How long $4 million lasts$120,00060+ years
How long $5 million lasts$150,00060+ years

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $1.75 million last in retirement?
Withdrawing $70,000 a year, raised 2% a year for inflation, $1.75 million lasts 44 years at a steady 5% return. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 29 years. Real returns vary year to year, which the odds table on this page accounts for.
How much can I withdraw from $1.75 million to make it last 30 years?
About $86,075 in the first year, raised 2% a year after that, spends $1.75 million to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return. That is 4.9% of the balance. A plan that must survive bad markets usually starts lower.
How long will $1.75 million last with Social Security?
Spending $94,000 a year with $2,000 a month of Social Security starting in year three leaves the portfolio paying $70,000 a year once benefits begin. On a steady 5% return that lasts 41 years, against 27 years with no benefit.