$1.25 million at $40,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $58,272; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,250,000 | $40,000 | $1,270,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,270,500 | $40,800 | $1,291,185 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,291,185 | $41,616 | $1,312,047 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,312,047 | $42,448 | $1,333,079 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,333,079 | $43,297 | $1,354,271 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,354,271 | $44,163 | $1,375,613 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,375,613 | $45,046 | $1,397,095 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,397,095 | $45,947 | $1,418,705 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,418,705 | $46,866 | $1,440,430 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,440,430 | $47,804 | $1,462,258 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,462,258 | $48,760 | $1,484,173 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,484,173 | $49,735 | $1,506,160 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,506,160 | $50,730 | $1,528,202 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,528,202 | $51,744 | $1,550,281 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,550,281 | $52,779 | $1,572,376 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,572,376 | $53,835 | $1,594,469 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,594,469 | $54,911 | $1,616,535 |
| 18 | 82 | $1,616,535 | $56,010 | $1,638,552 |
| 19 | 83 | $1,638,552 | $57,130 | $1,660,493 |
| 20 | 84 | $1,660,493 | $58,272 | $1,682,332 |
| 21 | 85 | $1,682,332 | $59,438 | $1,704,038 |
| 22 | 86 | $1,704,038 | $60,627 | $1,725,582 |
| 23 | 87 | $1,725,582 | $61,839 | $1,746,930 |
| 24 | 88 | $1,746,930 | $63,076 | $1,768,047 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,768,047 | $64,337 | $1,788,895 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,788,895 | $65,624 | $1,809,434 |
| 27 | 91 | $1,809,434 | $66,937 | $1,829,623 |
| 28 | 92 | $1,829,623 | $68,275 | $1,849,415 |
| 29 | 93 | $1,849,415 | $69,641 | $1,868,762 |
| 30 | 94 | $1,868,762 | $71,034 | $1,887,615 |
| 31 | 95 | $1,887,615 | $72,454 | $1,905,918 |
| 32 | 96 | $1,905,918 | $73,904 | $1,923,616 |
| 33 | 97 | $1,923,616 | $75,382 | $1,940,646 |
| 34 | 98 | $1,940,646 | $76,889 | $1,956,944 |
| 35 | 99 | $1,956,944 | $78,427 | $1,972,443 |
| 36 | 100 | $1,972,443 | $79,996 | $1,987,070 |
| 37 | 101 | $1,987,070 | $81,595 | $2,000,748 |
| 38 | 102 | $2,000,748 | $83,227 | $2,013,397 |
| 39 | 103 | $2,013,397 | $84,892 | $2,024,930 |
| 40 | 104 | $2,024,930 | $86,590 | $2,035,257 |
The odds $1.25 million lasts at $40,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $40,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 93% |
| 25 years | 95% | 85% |
| 30 years | 90% | 74% |
| 35 years | 85% | 63% |
| 40 years | 79% | 55% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 38 years | 32 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 48 years | 37 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 48 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $40,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $40,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $4,030 | 10% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $1,295 | 3% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $40,000 a year ($3,333 a month) from $1,250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 78, around age 142. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $61,482 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.25 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 44 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 32 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 25 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 21 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 16 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 13 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.25 million lasts. The same $40,000 a year from $400,000, $450,000, $500,000, $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000 or $1 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.