$1.25 million at $60,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 96. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $87,409; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,250,000 | $60,000 | $1,249,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,249,500 | $61,200 | $1,247,715 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,247,715 | $62,424 | $1,244,556 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,244,556 | $63,672 | $1,239,927 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,239,927 | $64,946 | $1,233,730 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,233,730 | $66,245 | $1,225,860 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,225,860 | $67,570 | $1,216,205 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,216,205 | $68,921 | $1,204,648 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,204,648 | $70,300 | $1,191,065 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,191,065 | $71,706 | $1,175,328 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,175,328 | $73,140 | $1,157,298 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,157,298 | $74,602 | $1,136,830 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,136,830 | $76,095 | $1,113,772 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,113,772 | $77,616 | $1,087,964 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,087,964 | $79,169 | $1,059,235 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,059,235 | $80,752 | $1,027,407 |
| 17 | 81 | $1,027,407 | $82,367 | $992,291 |
| 18 | 82 | $992,291 | $84,014 | $953,691 |
| 19 | 83 | $953,691 | $85,695 | $911,396 |
| 20 | 84 | $911,396 | $87,409 | $865,186 |
| 21 | 85 | $865,186 | $89,157 | $814,831 |
| 22 | 86 | $814,831 | $90,940 | $760,086 |
| 23 | 87 | $760,086 | $92,759 | $700,693 |
| 24 | 88 | $700,693 | $94,614 | $636,383 |
| 25 | 89 | $636,383 | $96,506 | $566,871 |
| 26 | 90 | $566,871 | $98,436 | $491,856 |
| 27 | 91 | $491,856 | $100,405 | $411,024 |
| 28 | 92 | $411,024 | $102,413 | $324,041 |
| 29 | 93 | $324,041 | $104,461 | $230,559 |
| 30 | 94 | $230,559 | $106,551 | $130,208 |
| 31 | 95 | $130,208 | $108,682 | $22,603 |
| 32 | 96 | $22,603 | $22,603 | $0 |
The odds $1.25 million lasts at $60,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $60,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 88% | 71% |
| 25 years | 71% | 51% |
| 30 years | 54% | 37% |
| 35 years | 43% | 27% |
| 40 years | 36% | 21% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 32 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 4% | 42 years | 27 years | 24 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 32 years | 27 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 41 years | 32 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 40 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $60,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 55 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $60,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $7,158 | 12% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $5,288 | 9% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $60,000 a year ($5,000 a month) from $1,250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 32, around age 96. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $61,482 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.25 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 44 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 32 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 25 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 21 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 16 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 13 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.25 million lasts. The same $60,000 a year from $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million or $2 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.